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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Madrid Masters Semi Final Tips: Struff market movement justified for Karatsev rematch</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-05-05">05 May 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Madrid Masters Semi Final Tips: Struff market movement justified for Karatsev rematch", "name": "Madrid Masters Semi Final Tips: Struff market movement justified for Karatsev rematch", "description": "It's semi-final day at the Madrid Masters today with Carlos Alcaraz facing Borna Coric, and Jan-Lennard Struff up against Aslan Karatsev. Dan Weston returns ...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/madrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/madrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-05-05T11:40:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-05-05T12:04:00+01:00", "articleBody": "It's semi-final day at the Madrid Masters today with Carlos Alcaraz facing Borna Coric, and Jan-Lennard Struff up against Aslan Karatsev. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts... Tsitsipas exit leaves Alcaraz overwhelming favourite Spanish phenom's return game gives huge edge over Coric Struff and Karatsev face repeat of qualifier Karatsev and Struff triumph on Thursday We managed to pick up another winner in what has been a pretty successful tournament in Madrid with Aslan Karatsev getting past Zhizhen Zhang in straight sets. I also, as mentioned, liked Jan-Lennard Struff on the game handicap against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and the German ended up defeating his top ten opponent in three sets in what was an excellent win. As I've mentioned on a number of occasions in the past, Tsitsipas' fairly mediocre return data was again an issue yesterday, and in the quick conditions of Madrid, created a high-variance encounter which he was on the wrong end of, failing to convert most of his break point chances. This continues to be a concern for the Greek man. Alcaraz procession to title likely to continue Such an issue tends not to be a major problem for world number one Carlos Alcaraz, who is yet again an overwhelming pre-match favourite at [1.08]. His semi-final against Borna Coric is first on the schedule at 1500 UK time, and a glance at the two players clay data over the last year sees Alcaraz with a slight advantage on serve numbers, but a staggering edge on return - he's broken opponents 18% more than Coric has done over this sample. Ultimately, this is likely to be the major ability differential between the duo this afternoon, and is absolutely the reason why Alcaraz is heavy odds-on continually against the vast majority of opposition. The biggest price Alcaraz has been across Barcelona and Madrid on clay is around the [1.25] mark against Tsitsipas, and also Alexander Zverev, and he eased to victory in both - he simply is a class above anyone in this field. Karatsev with more market support than qualifying clash Should Alcaraz win, he'll be yet again an overwhelming favourite in the final whoever he ends up facing. It's not often we see two players from qualifying meet in a Masters semi-final, and especially when one (Jan-Lennard Struff) was a lucky loser having lost in qualifying - to today's opponent Aslan Karatsev! The market is finding it tricky to split the duo for the night match, scheduled for around 1900 UK time this evening. For that match in qualifying, Struff was priced up at around the [1.6] mark but lost in straight sets, and following Karatsev's impressive run to this stage, there's clear market movement with Struff the very slight underdog at [2.02]. We also have to consider Karatsev having dropped just one set to reach the semi-finals, while Struff has now won four consecutive deciding sets, which is hardly likely to be of benefit to his accumulated fatigue levels. Twelve-month clay data gives Struff the edge, which is why he was pre-match favourite for their qualifying round match, but the additional information obtained in this tournament since that match makes the market movement pretty justified in my view. Karatsev has better serve and return numbers across each of their five main draw wins so far, and he's already beaten a player who has benefited from a variance-heavy run (Zhang) in the previous round, so Struff being around 40 ticks bigger today than that qualifying match looks fair enough. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.728x410.gif", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.547x410.gif", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.410x410.gif" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.728x410.gif" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.450x253.gif 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.600x338.gif 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/Jan-Lennard-Struff-1280.728x410.gif 728w" alt="German Tennis Player Jan-Lennard Struff"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Jan-Lennard Struff has already lost to Aslan Karatsev in qualifying...</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/struff-v-karatsev-betting-32325496" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/struff-v-karatsev-betting-32325496">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Madrid%20Masters%20Semi%20Final%20Tips%3A%20Struff%20market%20movement%20justified%20for%20Karatsev%20rematch&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-semi-final-tips-struff-market-movement-justified-for-karatsev-rematch-050523-778.html&text=Madrid%20Masters%20Semi%20Final%20Tips%3A%20Struff%20market%20movement%20justified%20for%20Karatsev%20rematch" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>It's semi-final day at the Madrid Masters today with Carlos Alcaraz facing Borna Coric, and Jan-Lennard Struff up against Aslan Karatsev. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><strong>Tsitsipas exit leaves Alcaraz overwhelming favourite</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Spanish phenom's return game gives huge edge over Coric</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Struff and Karatsev face repeat of qualifier</strong></h3> </li> <hr><h2>Karatsev and Struff triumph on Thursday</h2><p></p><p>We managed to pick up <strong>another winner</strong> in what has been a pretty successful tournament in Madrid with Aslan Karatsev getting past Zhizhen Zhang in straight sets. I also, as mentioned, liked Jan-Lennard Struff on the game handicap against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and the German ended up defeating his top ten opponent in three sets in what was an excellent win.</p><p>As I've mentioned on a number of occasions in the past, Tsitsipas' fairly mediocre return data was again an issue yesterday, and in the quick conditions of Madrid, created a <strong>high-variance encounter</strong> which he was on the wrong end of, failing to convert most of his break point chances. This continues to be a concern for the Greek man.</p><h2>Alcaraz procession to title likely to continue</h2><p></p><p>Such an issue tends not to be a major problem for world number one<strong> Carlos Alcaraz</strong>, who is yet again an overwhelming pre-match favourite at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/carlos-alcaraz-v-coric-betting-32322905"><b class="inline_odds" title="1/12"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.08</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/12</span></b></a>. His semi-final against <strong>Borna Coric</strong> is first on the schedule at 1500 UK time, and a glance at the two players clay data over the last year sees Alcaraz with a slight advantage on serve numbers, but a <strong>staggering edge on return</strong> - he's broken opponents 18% more than Coric has done over this sample.</p><p>Ultimately, this is likely to be the major <strong>ability differential</strong> between the duo this afternoon, and is absolutely the reason why Alcaraz is heavy odds-on continually against the vast majority of opposition.</p><p>The biggest price Alcaraz has been across Barcelona and Madrid on clay is around the <b class="inline_odds" title="1/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.25</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/4</span></b> mark against Tsitsipas, and also Alexander Zverev, and he <strong>eased to victory in both</strong> - he simply is a class above anyone in this field.</p><h2>Karatsev with more market support than qualifying clash</h2><p></p><p>Should Alcaraz win, he'll be yet again an overwhelming favourite in the final whoever he ends up facing. It's not often we see two players from qualifying meet in a Masters semi-final, and especially when one (<strong>Jan-Lennard Struff</strong>) was a lucky loser having lost in qualifying - to today's opponent <strong>Aslan Karatsev</strong>! The market is finding it tricky to split the duo for the night match, scheduled for around 1900 UK time this evening.</p><blockquote>For that match in qualifying, Struff was priced up at around the <b class="inline_odds" title="8/13"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.6</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">8/13</span></b> mark but lost in straight sets, and following Karatsev's impressive run to this stage, there's clear market movement with Struff the very slight underdog at <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/struff-v-karatsev-betting-32325496"><b class="inline_odds" title="1/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.02</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">1/1</span></b></a>.</blockquote><p>We also have to consider Karatsev having dropped just one set to reach the semi-finals, while Struff has now won four consecutive deciding sets, which is hardly likely to be of benefit to his <strong>accumulated fatigue </strong>levels.</p><p>Twelve-month clay data gives Struff the edge, which is why he was pre-match favourite for their qualifying round match, but the <strong>additional information</strong> obtained in this tournament since that match makes the market movement pretty justified in my view.</p><p><strong>Karatsev has better serve and return numbers</strong> across each of their five main draw wins so far, and he's already beaten a player who has benefited from a variance-heavy run (Zhang) in the previous round, so Struff being around 40 ticks bigger today than that qualifying match looks fair enough.</p><p></p></ul> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs apply.</a></p> <section class="promo__desc"> <div 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Crystal Palace v Liverpool: Tuck in to 9/4 & 4/1 lunchtime specials at Selhurst Park
Horse Racing Tips and Predictions
Paul Nicholls: Iceo has nice chance in Betfair Henry VIII Chase among my 12 Saturday runners
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Kevin Blake's Big Races Verdicts: Goshen and Edwardstone can challenge in Betfair Grade 1s at Sandown
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West Indies v England Third ODI Tips: Chase looks good at 14/1
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