Madrid Masters Day 7 Tips: Rublev to repeat Monte-Carlo win over Khachanov

Dan Weston
02 May 2023
3:00 min read

Andrey Rublev is favourite over Karen Khachanov...

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Fourth round action is the focus of the Madrid Masters on Tuesday, with all eight matches in the round on the schedule. Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts on the day ahead...

Struff wins as Norrie exits
Outright leaders all heavy favourites to win on Tuesday
Rublev facing Khachanov rematch

Struff picks up useful underdog winner for us

We picked up another underdog winner on Monday with Jan-Lennard Struff getting the better of Dusan Lajovic in three sets, on a day where nobody really had it easy - six of the eight third round clashes went the distance, including Zhizhen Zhang shocking Cameron Norrie in a final set tiebreak.

The outright market is yet to fully form after Monday's matches, but Carlos Alcaraz 1.814/5 is still the tournament favourite, with Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, both around 7.06/1, are vying for second favourite status. Everyone else remaining in the tournament are well into double digits, or even bigger.

Zheng facing quick turnaround for Fritz clash

Action gets under way at 10am UK time again on Tuesday, which is a pretty quick turnaround for the likes of Zheng who has only just got the job done at 22:30, and is scheduled to face Taylor Fritz at 14:30 on Tuesday. I'd be pretty shocked if Fritz didn't end Zheng's journey tomorrow afternoon.

Alcaraz to give Zverev a true test of where his game is at

The three market favourites - Alcaraz, Medvedev and Tsitsipas - are all priced around the 1.21/5 mark to progress on Tuesday, with Alcaraz facing Alexander Zverev, Medvedev up against qualifier Aslan Karatsev and Tsitsipas clashing with Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

Despite Zverev winning easily on Sunday against qualifier Hugo Grenier, Alcaraz is a gigantic step up and we have to go back to the meeting between the two players at the French Open last year (before Zverev's long-term injury absence) for Zverev's last win against a top 10 player on the main tour.

Rublev solid favourite over Khachanov

Moving on, a few weeks ago we picked up a winner in Monte Carlo with Andrey Rublev defeating Karen Khachanov, and the market has Rublev at a shorter price for their re-match on Tuesday. The 1.548/15 price on Rublev looks fair enough, especially with Khachanov dropping sets as a strong market favourite in both his matches here so far.

Rublev's clay data is far better than Khachanov's over the last year, and all-surface data in 2023 is also, so the market prices look reasonable. I'm happy to keep Rublev onside for this clash.

Finally, I also think Jaume Munar should have too much for Daniel Altmaier, while Jan-Lennard Struff can continue his strong run here, given that he should also have enough to deal with the thereat of Pedro Cachin - he has better clay data than the low-ranked Argentinian this year.

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