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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">Madrid Masters Day 2 Tips: Brits in action but Struff the best bet of the day</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan-weston/">Dan Weston</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-04-27">27 April 2023</time></li> <li>3:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "Madrid Masters Day 2 Tips: Brits in action but Struff the best bet of the day", "name": "Madrid Masters Day 2 Tips: Brits in action but Struff the best bet of the day", "description": "The Madrid Masters continues on Thursday with 16 further first-round matches, and returning to preview the day ahead is Dan Weston...", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/madrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/madrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html", "datePublished": "2023-04-27T08:03:00+01:00", "dateModified": "2023-04-27T17:06:00+01:00", "articleBody": "The Madrid Masters continues on Thursday with 16 further first-round matches, and returning to preview the day ahead is Dan Weston... Quick conditions again on show in Madrid Thiem heavy favourite to meet Tsitsipas Struff potential underdog value Serve-oriented matches on day one in quick conditions Across both yesterday's preview, and the outright preview, I discussed the quicker than average clay-court conditions in Madrid due to the altitude of the Spanish capital, with the implications being more matches decided on key points and tiebreaks more likely than a standard clay venue. This dynamic certainly manifested itself on day one, with 11 tiebreaks in 16 matches, working out at 0.27 tiebreaks per set - not far off double the ATP clay-court average for 2023. On day one, almost 85% of service games were held, a figure around 10% more than ATP clay matches this season. So, there is little doubt that the trend continues, and we should anticipate further serve-oriented matches as the tournament evolves. Not only this, but on day one, court speed proved to be a great leveller in some cases on day one, with Maxime Cressy's big serve enabling him to give Stan Wawrinka a tough time of things, although the Swiss man eventually did nick the final set tiebreak to progress. Conversely, Diego Schwartzman's poor season continued, losing to Hugo Grenier in straight sets, with the quicker conditions unlikely to suit the return-oriented Argentine. Thiem should have too much for off-pace Edmund Moving on to Tuesday's card, the 16 matches come from the bottom half of the draw, with arguably Dominic Thiem versus Kyle Edmund being the match of the day. Both players are far from former levels, although Edmund's 2023 data is dreadful and he looks far off the player who was ranked as high as 14 at the age of 23 and tipped to be a big star of the future. Thiem is a heavy [1.18] favourite to progress and meet Stefanos Tsitsipas in round two. Murray could face tricky test from Vavassori Edmund's fellow Brit, Andy Murray, threatened to quit the clay season after losing in poor fashion to Alex De Minaur in Monte Carlo, but conditions there compared to Madrid are like two extremes. Opponent Andrea Vavassori has qualified to be here, and has picked up some good runs in Challengers of late, regularly reaching quarter-finals or better on clay at that level this season. Vavassori also picked up two top-70 wins on his way to the quarter-finals of the Marrakech 250 earlier this month, and with a lot of clay wins recorded of late, should give Murray a tricky test. Murray is [1.77] to edge this, and it's tough to price this match up given Murray's lack of clay activity in the last year or two. If it was on slow clay, Vavassori at prices would be more enticing. Struff surprisingly underdog against Sonego In other matches, I wouldn't be surprised if Jan-Lennard Struff overturned the odds at [2.3] against Lorenzo Sonego, having a better record on clay over the last couple of years and also in much better form this season as well. Struff is here by way of a lucky loser spot after losing to Aslan Karatsev in qualifiers, but Sonego could well be a step down in opposition quality to the hit-and-miss Karatsev. Back Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Lorenzo Sonego @ 2.3 Improving Shelbayh in first Masters match We also see the first Jordanian player I can think of playing a Masters 1000 level tournament with wild-card Abedallah Shelbayh facing Pedro Cachin. Shelbayh picked up his first main tour win last week in Banja Luka against Elias Ymer having qualified to make the main draw, and that is in line with continued improvement in 2023 which saw him reach a Challenger final in February on hard court and not far off halving his ranking in the four months this season so far. The Argentine clay-courter Pedro Cachin stands in the way of a round two spot, and again, this is a tough match to price up. I'm fascinated to see how competitive Shelbayh could be here at underdog odds of [3.1]. ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Dan Weston", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/dan_weston" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/tennis/andy murray feeling heat 1280x720.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Andy Murray"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Andy Murray is in first round action in Madrid today</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977218">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213413720" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213413720">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet/?text=Madrid%20Masters%20Day%202%20Tips%3A%20%20Brits%20in%20action%20but%20Struff%20the%20best%20bet%20of%20the%20day&url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html" target="_blank" title="Twitter"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--twitter">Twitter</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--facebook"> <a href="https://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html" target="_blank" title="Facebook"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--facebook">Facebook</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--reddit"> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/submit/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html" target="_blank" title="Reddit"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--reddit">Reddit</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--whatsapp"> <a href="https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html" target="_blank" title="WhatsApp"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--whatsapp">WhatsApp</span></a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--telegram"> <a href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Ftennis%2Fevents%2Fmadrid-masters-day-2-tips-brits-in-action-but-struff-the-best-bet-of-the-day-270423-778.html&text=Madrid%20Masters%20Day%202%20Tips%3A%20%20Brits%20in%20action%20but%20Struff%20the%20best%20bet%20of%20the%20day" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="#betslip">View the Betslip</a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>The Madrid Masters continues on Thursday with 16 further first-round matches, and returning to preview the day ahead is Dan Weston...</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><strong>Quick conditions again on show in Madrid</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Thiem heavy favourite to meet Tsitsipas</strong></h3> </li> <li> <h3><strong>Struff potential underdog value</strong></h3> </li> <hr><h2><strong>Serve-oriented matches on day one in quick conditions</strong></h2><p><strong></strong></p><p>Across both yesterday's preview, and the <a href="https://betting.betfair.com/tennis/events/madrid-masters-outright-tips-alcaraz-leads-the-way-on-the-spanish-clay-260423-778.html">outright preview</a>, I discussed the quicker than average clay-court conditions in Madrid due to the altitude of the Spanish capital, with the implications being <strong>more matches decided on key points and tiebreaks</strong> more likely than a standard clay venue.</p><p>This dynamic certainly manifested itself on day one, with 11 tiebreaks in 16 matches, working out at <strong>0.27 tiebreaks per set</strong> - not far off double the ATP clay-court average for 2023.</p><p>On day one, almost 85% of service games were held, a figure around 10% more than ATP clay matches this season. So, there is little doubt that the trend continues, and we should anticipate further <strong>serve-oriented matches</strong> as the tournament evolves.</p><p>Not only this, but on day one, court speed proved to be a great leveller in some cases on day one, with Maxime Cressy's big serve enabling him to give <strong>Stan Wawrinka</strong> a tough time of things, although the Swiss man eventually did nick the final set tiebreak to progress.</p><p>Conversely, <strong>Diego Schwartzman's poor season continued</strong>, losing to Hugo Grenier in straight sets, with the quicker conditions unlikely to suit the return-oriented Argentine.</p><h2><strong>Thiem should have too much for off-pace Edmund</strong></h2><p><strong></strong></p><p>Moving on to Tuesday's card, the 16 matches come from the bottom half of the draw, with arguably <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/edmund-v-thiem-betting-32296368">Dominic Thiem versus Kyle Edmund</a> being the match of the day.</p><p>Both players are far from former levels, although Edmund's 2023 data is dreadful and he looks far off the player who was ranked as high as 14 at the age of 23 and <strong>tipped to be a big star of the future</strong>. Thiem is a heavy <b class="inline_odds" title="2/11"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.18</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">2/11</span></b> favourite to progress and meet Stefanos Tsitsipas in round two.</p><h2><strong>Murray could face tricky test from Vavassori</strong></h2><p><strong></strong></p><p>Edmund's fellow Brit, <strong>Andy Murray</strong>, threatened to quit the clay season after losing in poor fashion to Alex De Minaur in Monte Carlo, but conditions there compared to Madrid are like two extremes.</p><p>Opponent <strong>Andrea Vavassori</strong> has qualified to be here, and has picked up some good runs in Challengers of late, regularly reaching quarter-finals or better on clay at that level this season.</p><blockquote> <p>Vavassori also picked up two top-70 wins on his way to the quarter-finals of the Marrakech 250 earlier this month, and with <strong>a lot of clay wins recorded of late</strong>, should give Murray a tricky test.</p> </blockquote><p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/vavassori-v-murray-betting-32301904">Murray is <b class="inline_odds" title="4/5"><span class="inline_odds__main">1.77</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">4/5</span></b> to edge this</a>, and it's tough to price this match up given Murray's lack of clay activity in the last year or two. If it was on slow clay, Vavassori at prices would be more enticing.</p><h2><strong>Struff surprisingly underdog against Sonego</strong></h2><p><strong></strong></p><p>In other matches, I wouldn't be surprised if <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213413720">Jan-Lennard Struff overturned the odds at <b class="inline_odds" title="5/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.3</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/4</span></b> against Lorenzo Sonego</a>, having a better record on clay over the last couple of years and also in much better form this season as well.</p><p>Struff is here by way of a lucky loser spot after losing to Aslan Karatsev in qualifiers, but Sonego could well be <strong>a step down in opposition quality</strong> to the hit-and-miss Karatsev.</p><div class="bet_promo_banner"> <p>Back Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Lorenzo Sonego @</p> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213413720" class="bet_promo_banner__link" rel="noopener">2.3</a></div><h2><strong>Improving Shelbayh in first Masters match</strong></h2><p><strong></strong></p><p>We also see the first Jordanian player I can think of playing a Masters 1000 level tournament with wild-card <a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/tennis/atp-madrid-2023/ab-shelbayh-v-cachin-betting-32296358">Abedallah Shelbayh facing Pedro Cachin</a>.</p><p>Shelbayh picked up his first main tour win last week in Banja Luka against Elias Ymer having qualified to make the main draw, and <strong>that is in line with continued improvement in 2023</strong> which saw him reach a Challenger final in February on hard court and not far off halving his ranking in the four months this season so far.</p><p>The Argentine clay-courter <strong>Pedro Cachin</strong> stands in the way of a round two spot, and again, this is a tough match to price up. I'm fascinated to see how competitive Shelbayh could be here at underdog odds of <b class="inline_odds" title="85/40"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.1</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">85/40</span></b>.</p><hr><p></p></ul> </div> </div> <div class="recommended_bets betslip_goto no_banners" data-banner_cta="Join"> <h3>Recommended bets</h3> <div class="editor editor--reversed"> <p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/tennis/market/1.213413720">Back Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Lorenzo Sonego at <b class="inline_odds" title="5/4"><span class="inline_odds__main">2.3</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/4</span></b></a></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New customers can get £20 in free bets!</h2> <p>New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. <a href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBHC01B5G20">T&Cs 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