Madrid Masters Day 1 Tips: Back Elahi Galan to beat vulnerable fav Bublik

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Stan Wawrinks is one of a few veterans in action on day one of the Madrid Masters

The Madrid Masters gets underway on Wednesday morning, and returning to discuss the day one schedule is Dan Weston...

  • Gasquet and Wawrinka among high-profile players in action

  • Paire could give Arnaldi a decent match

  • Bublik a vulnerable favourite on clay


Junior star Landaluce faces Gasquet in round one

Yet another high-profile tennis tournament is on the agenda over the next week and a half, and there's high-profile names in action on the opening day - at least former top 10 players anyway, with the top 32 seeds getting first-round byes.

These include Richard Gasquet, who faces the Spanish wildcard Martin Landaluce, who won the 2022 US Open boys singles title, and is one of the leading juniors currently having turned 17 in January.

Landaluce did finally pick up a Challenger match win earlier this month against Jozef Kovalik, but indoors, was schooled by Tommy Paul in Dijon last October. He took a set off Hugo Grenier in Barcelona qualifiers several weeks ago, so while his current level isn't likely to be great, he's probably a little better than his rank just inside the top 1000.

It will be fascinating to see whether Landaluce can compete against the veteran Frenchman today, but the market has him as the 6.611/2 long-shot for the match win.

Stan Wawrinka is another former top-10 player in action today, and he's a solid 1.4840/85 favourite against Maxime Cressy. Wawrinka's level has been pretty mixed this year, but unless the big-serving Cressy serves superbly, the Swiss man should have too much nous on his preferred surface.

Paire underdog against fellow qualifier Arnaldi

Wawrinka's close friend and former top 20 player Benoit Paire makes a rare foray into main tour action having dropped out of the top 200 earlier in the year and continually struggling in both Challengers and main tour qualifiers.

What we do know about Paire though is that if his mind is on, and he's focused, he's a decent match for many higher ranked players.

The fact that Paire has twice recovered from a set down to win both qualifying matches suggests he may well be of that mindset here, and if so, could well give fellow qualifier Matteo Arnaldi a tougher time than the pre-match odds suggest.

Numbers-wise, Arnaldi at 1.4740/85 looks a pretty justified favourite, but Paire has a far higher ceiling than his data over the last couple of years suggests.

Ruusuvuori favourite to set up Alcaraz meeting

Moving on, there are signs that Emil Ruusuvuori is now adapting better to the demands of the main tour, reaching the quarter-final in Miami last month, and picking up a decent win over Frances Tiafoe last week in Barcelona. With this in mind, I'm a little surprised to see him as big as 1.594/7 against Ugo Humbert.

Humbert has really struggled on the main tour over the last year or so, sometimes looking like a player who should dominate Challengers but not good enough for the ATP Tour. Ruusuvuori did beat the Frenchman in last year's French Open first round on clay as well.

Ruusuvuori has better serve and return data on clay in the last year, so looks well positioned to get the job done and face top seed Alcaraz in round two.

Bublik could struggle against in-form Elahi Galan

Finally, Alexander Bublik has a woeful record on clay and could be a vulnerable favourite at 1.9210/11 against the Colombian, Daniel Elahi Galan.

The Kazakh has worse career data on the dirt than Elahi Galan and has lost his last four matches, and even in these quicker conditions looks vulnerable against an opponent who reached a Challenger final on clay several weeks ago.

Back Daniel Elahi Galan to beat Alexander Bublik @

2.06

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Back Daniel Elahi Galan at 2.0621/20

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