Indian Wells Men's Outright Tips: Nadal the man to beat in California

Djokovic withdrawal influences outright market

As with the Australian Open, the biggest question from an outright market perspective was whether Novak Djokovic would participate. I wasn't necessarily expecting an answer this early, but the Serb pulled out last night, meaning the tournament is effectively shorn of its number two seed.

This changed dynamic obviously has had a significant impact on the outright market, with Djokovic's implied win percentage needing to be redistributed among the field. There are several implications - the market leaders, Daniil Medvedev and Rafa Nadal, are now shortened to just shy of 4.003/1 apiece, while there's some movement in quarter four in particular, with the bracket now wide open following Djokovic's withdrawal.

Court speed a critical discussion at Indian Wells

It's important to rationalise in advance that Indian Wells tends to play markedly slower than the average hard court. Historical data suggests a low service points won percentage, and aces per game count, and this should count against a number of players, particularly big-servers such as John Isner and Reilly Opelka.

This could also be a negative for Daniil Medvedev's chances, with the number one seed headlining the top half of the draw. The Russian tends to do his best work in quicker conditions, and he is unlikely to find them here. He's also still got quite a bit to prove in slower conditions on clay, and clay-courters have sprung a few surprises at big prices in the early rounds here in the past.

Nadal looms in the latter stages for Medvedev

Medvedev's main rivals look to be Stefanos Tsitsipas and the rapidly improving Carlos Alcaraz Garfia in quarter one - the Spaniard could be a real threat in these slower conditions - but of course, moving towards the latter stages, the issue of Rafa Nadal in quarter two looms.

Nadal has already beaten Medvedev twice this season in the last two tournaments they competed in, and the King of Clay is now 15-0 for the calendar year, having won all three tournaments in which he has competed in.

I definitely lean towards Nadal in the anticipated slower conditions, plus the mental baggage which Medvedev potentially holds following those two recent defeats to the Spaniard. However, the prices on Nadal have shortened a little overnight, which is a real shame - although I wouldn't put anyone off him at around the 3.7511/4 mark.

Scope for a big-priced player to emerge from quarter four

Moving into the bottom half of the draw, things look markedly weaker in the absence of Djokovic. Following his withdrawal, Alexander Zverev - who has had recent problems of his own - looks a solid favourite to progress out of the bottom half of the draw, although the in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime might have something to say about that.

Quarter four now looks wide open with no Djokovic. Andrey Rublev is the highest-ranked player in the bracket, and definitely has valid claims for latter-stage progression, but there's certainly scope for a bigger-priced player in the outright to make the semi-finals at the very least.

Those with a chance of doing so include Hubert Hurkacz, and also Diego Schwartzman who should be very happy with the anticipated slower conditions. The diminutive Argentine lost to eventual winner Cameron Norrie in the quarter-finals here last year, picking up decent wins over Dan Evans and Casper Ruud on the way, and while the outright market is a little illiquid currently, general market pricing suggests he will start at around 100.0099/1 which doesn't look to be the worst back-to-lay proposition.

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