Norrie continues strong tournament
Brit favourite tonight against Tiafoe
Medvedev vulnerable in these conditions
Alcaraz pushing for tournament favourite status
We've turned around quite nicely in the event as it has progressed, with Cameron Norrie giving us back-to-back winners after his defeat of Andrey Rublev in straight-sets.
On a day where results generally went to the favourites, we also saw Daniil Medvedev again struggle and confirm his distaste of the extremely slow conditions, but he did eventually see off Alexander Zverev 7-5 in the deciding set.
The outright markets are still re-forming following the overnight matches but a first glance sees Carlos Alcaraz now vying for favourite status with Medvedev, while anyone backing Norrie at our recommended pre-event 38.037/1 should now have a handy trading position a little later on today.
Norrie favourite to make semi-finals
The Brit is back in action immediately this evening with an 1800 UK time meeting with Frances Tiafoe, one of just two quarter-finals on the card on Wednesday with the remaining two clashes taking place tomorrow.
Norrie is the 1.645/8 favourite to get past the American, who has really picked up his results over the last six months or so, now just one spot away from a career-best ranking, which he will likely earn following his displays here so far (he was defending only third round points).
Norrie's spot in the quarter-finals is a deserved reward for some smart scheduling which saw him acclimatise far quicker than most non-clay specialists having played several South American clay events in advance, and that win over Rublev, again, was deserved.
He's also yet to lose to Tiafoe, having beaten him several times in the more distant past, albeit one being in an exhibition event.
Return data on hard court over the last six months makes Norrie a merited favourite - he's won more than 6% greater return points won during this time period, but with a smaller discrepancy in Tiafoe's favour on serve.
Throw in Norrie's improving clay-court game as well, which is useful in these slower conditions, and he looks accurately priced here.
Medvedev a vulnerable favourite
Following this, Medvedev faces the threat of Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who is probably not an ideal opponent in this particular event.
An inconsistent player, but a competent clay-courter who has a high ceiling is not what Medvedev will have wanted in these conditions.
Medvedev has dropped sets in both of his previous two matches here and also did so indoors last month in Rotterdam against the Spaniard in conditions which should be more to Medvedev's liking.
That day, Medvedev was priced up at around 1.171/6 and he's only a slightly bigger price today, at 1.261/4.
That price makes no sense to me, given the clear difference in conditions. If it was a fast hard court, then sure, Medvedev's status as an overwhelming pre-match favourite is absolutely deserved.
However, it won't be that here, and handicap options should be possible.
As the Exchange gains liquidity in advance of the match, I'm anticipating around 2.1011/10 on Davidovich Fokina +4.5 games, and around 1.654/6 on him with a 5.5 game head start. Either option looks some decent value to me here.