Indian Wells Masters Day 4 Tips: Favourites dominate the Saturday schedule

Dan Weston
11 March 2023
3:00 min read

Andy Murray is in action tonight...

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The Indian Wells Masters continues on Saturday with further second round action, and returning to give his thoughts on the day ahead is Dan Weston...

Medvedev's tournament winner odds shorten
Alcaraz facing Kokkinakis test
Murray heavy favourite against Albot
Musetti with edge over Mannarino

Medvedev shortens as Tsitsipas exits

Following his win over Brandon Nakashima yesterday, Daniil Medvedev has shortened to 2.789/5 to win the title, and he's facing less high-profile competition as well with Stefanos Tsitsipas eliminated by Jordan Thompson.

This match was a complete illustration of what I've been saying about Tsitsipas for a number of years - his return data isn't good enough to challenge for major tournaments on a consistent basis and will draw him into high variance matches against lower-ranked opposition. Yes, he can win a lot of the high variance moments and do well - as happened in the Australian Open - but over the long run, those scenarios will level out towards expectation.

Variance and fine margins affect everyone in professional sport, and always will. We've been a victim of it several times this week ourselves, with Maxime Cressy spurning five set points in the second set against Alejandro Tabilo and losing last night.

Alcaraz defensively priced against Kokkinakis

Looking to join Medvedev in round three tomorrow are a number of high profile players who get their tournament started having received first-round byes, including Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune, and the latter two feature in the bottom quarter, which looks very tough, with numerous players capable of playing at a high level.

Alcaraz opens up against Thanasi Kokkinakis, and given that there are still concerns about the Spaniard, the markets are being quite defensive about his chances, trading at a current 1.364/11.

Draper and Murray favourites to continue British interest

There's plenty of British interest on the Saturday schedule too, with Dan Evans facing Jack Draper in an all-British clash. Evans' fitness is in doubt, having retired after four games in the opening set against Borna Coric in Dubai several weeks ago, and the market certainly is bearing this in mind - Draper is the 1.392/5favourite here.

We also get to see Andy Murray continue his tournament, as a strong 1.282/7 favourite over the Moldovan veteran Radu Albot. Murray again picked up victory the hard way in round one against Tomas Etcheverry, while Albot has somehow got to this stage as a direct lucky loser after losing to Jan-Lennard Struff in qualifiers.

It would be a shock if Albot won this, but it wouldn't be such a surprise if Murray got the job done in some drama again, as has been a consistent theme of late.

Musetti should be better suited to conditions than Mannarino

These strong market favourites are rather dominant on the schedule today with most of the matches featuring a player who is expected to progress, although one match where the market is finding it tough to split the players is Adrian Mannarino versus Lorenzo Musetti.

Mannarino nicked a final set tiebreak to get past Dominic Thiem in round one, and as mentioned in the discussion about that match has rarely impressed in slow conditions.

In theory at least, Musetti should be better suited to conditions but comes off a worrying three-match losing streak where he's been a solid pre-match favourite in all of the matches.

If I was forced to go with something today it would be the Italian as something of a Mannarino-fade, and he's priced up at 1.9620/21 to make round three.

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