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Alcaraz picking up support after Queen's title
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Tsitsipas favourite in Mallorca
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Fritz capable of Eastbourne hat-trick
Alcaraz wins Queen's title
Carlos Alcaraz made a big statement ahead of Wimbledon, by winning the title at Queen's Club yesterday. His first grass-court trophy will be a real confidence boost ahead of a Grand Slam on a surface which he is less familiar with than the others.
Having said that, he didn't face a top-15 opponent in the event, and almost lost to Arthur Rinderknech in his opening match, so there's still plenty for the world number one to prove. I'll be returning throughout this week to preview Wimbledon.
Tsitsipas and Fritz do last minute prep
Five matches on grass is evidently all that Alcaraz will need for his Wimbledon preparation, and he can take the week off this week from competitive action. However, some players are doing some last minute cramming, and they include Stefanos Tsitsipas - top seed in Mallorca - and Taylor Fritz, who has the same role in Eastbourne.
With both events being 250 level, seeds get the benefit from first-round byes, and only need to be victorious in four matches to win the title. However, the implications of a tough week ahead of a Grand Slam has often been discussed in this column.
Too much court time in these final warm-up events can be a curse as much as a blessing.
Side markets way forward in Mallorca
Conditions in Mallorca should be pretty serve-oriented. Service points won, aces per game and tiebreaks per set are all above the ATP grass-court mean over recent years. The side markets could be ripe for some value in terms of over 12.5 games first set markets, and over games for the match as well.
Try and find a heavy underdog who has a big serve for some big prices in these - someone like Ben Shelton, Chris Eubanks or Feliciano Lopez, who I'll move onto shortly.
Tsistipas top seed in Spain
Tsitsipas at 4.131/10 has a dream draw with the only noted names in his top quarter being veterans well en route to decline.
Feliciano Lopez was one of the best players in these grass-court warm-up events historically, but is far from the player that he once was. Could he draw Tsitsipas into a tough, serve-oriented battle though? Very possibly, and Tsitsipas' high variance, serve oriented style, is the only thing which deters me from thinking the Greek is value at market prices.
Other threats come from Halle winner Alexander Bublik 6.86/1 although two weeks in a row is quite the ask for the Kazakh.
Adrian Mannarino 8.415/2 will always have his supporters on grass, which is a surface where his record is much better than other surfaces - he is seeded to play Tsitsipas in the semi-final.
The bottom half, featuring Bublik and Shelton, looks far weaker and it would be a surprise if one of those didn't come through quarter three.
The fourth quarter looks particularly weak, and it's anyone's guess who could make it through. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the second seed, has a pretty poor record on grass.
It's Fritz or De Minaur in Eastbourne
On the south coast of England in Eastbourne, historical data suggests slower conditions, which are less likely to yield benefit for big-servers.
Could this be a tournament between favourite Taylor Fritz 3.953/1, who won here in 2019 and 2022, and Alex De Minaur 6.05/1, who was runner-up to Alcaraz at Queen's last week?
It looks like it to me, with the duo having far more grass-court pedigree than the other contenders at the top of the outright market.
Fritz has won his last three matches against De Minaur, including the semi-final here last year, but arguably faces more competent opposition in his half of the draw. However, I do think this event is likely to be won by either of these two players.