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Ruud and Rublev lead market in Hamburg
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Weak Umag event looks wide-open
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Quick conditions anticipated in Atlanta
Atlanta the focus ahead of US Open
Starting at 10:00 UK time on Monday, the latest batch of ATP events gets underway with clay events in Europe (Hamburg and Umag) and a hard court tournament in Atlanta, USA.
Ahead of a big August and September on hard court in North America, including two Masters tournaments, and the US Open, it's always rather puzzling that there are clay events post-Wimbledon. They tend to cater for traditional clay-courters looking to pick up some last-minute ranking points before six months away from the dirt on the main tour.
Ruud and Rublev facing potential repeat final
The Hamburg 500 gets started on Monday morning with five first-round clashes on the day one schedule. A 32-man event with no byes for seeds, the tournament winner will need to win five matches as opposed to four in Umag and Atlanta, the other events this week.
Top seed in Germany is Casper Ruud, with second seed Andrey Rublev, as the duo have the potential to re-match following Rublev's win in the final of Bastad yesterday. With the likes of Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti also in the field, there's plenty of competition for the title, with Ruud and Rublev both vying for favourite status at around 5.04/1.
The duo are obvious favourites, but let's see whether there are any implications for them following a long week in Sweden and then a likely round one match on Tuesday.
Lehecka favourite in weak Umag event
The event in Umag looks highly competitive, with no outstanding favourite for the title. Jiri Lehecka 8.615/2 is the top seed, with Sebastian Ofner, Roberto Carballes Baena and Lorenzo Sonego also benefiting from round one byes.
That list of four seeds illustrates quite how much of a departure in quality the field is compared to Hamburg.
I rate Lehecka's ability and future potential but the Czech has an interesting top quarter including former top 10 players Dominic Thiem and Marin Cilic, the improving Matteo Arnaldi plus three qualifiers. It will probably take Thiem or Cilic to mount a big challenge in order to prevent Lehecka from winning the quarter.
Ofner has a kind draw in Q2, but he would be the underdog in all likelihood against a Q1 winner unless there is a shock. Meanwhile, there's another former top 10 player in Q3 in the shape of Stan Wawrinka. Could the Swiss roll back the years and make the latter stages? He couldn't have asked for much of an easier draw.
Quarter four is arguably the most concentrated in quality, with all seven players in it able to make a viable case for getting through for various reasons. Sonego is the seed, but faces numerous challenges from some younger players - Cerundolo and Shevchenko - plus wily veteran clay-courters such as Albert Ramos and Marco Cecchinato.
With conditions likely to be slow in Croatia, players with noted clay-court quality should take focus in terms of the outright market.
Big servers to dominate in Atlanta
Finally, on hard court in Atlanta, Taylor Fritz 4.84/1 takes the top seed billing in the outright market and looks to be most likely challenged by Alex De Minaur 5.69/2. Expectations of fellow seed Dan Evans look low after a miserable run of form for the Brit, while Yoshihito Nishioka isn't of the calibre of Fritz or De Minaur on a quick hardcourt.
The average service points won figure in Atlanta is far in excess of the ATP hard court mean, as is the aces per game count, so big-servers should enjoy conditions here. Perhaps this gives some insight into why John Isner has been so dominant in the tournament over the last decade.
Isner won six titles here between 2013 and 2022, with only Nick Kyrgios, and Alex De Minaur (twice) able to break the Isner sequence. Further, since the tournament started in 2010, a serve-oriented player (Mardy Fish and Andy Roddick were the other two winners) has won the event every single time.
This potentially gives De Minaur - with noted ability in quick conditions - a slight edge over Fritz, and the Australian did pip the top seed to the title in 2019, with a tight two-set win in the final.
Isner among big-servers in the field
Those who think Isner can roll back the years and win here for a seventh time can avail themselves of the 16.531/2 currently available on the Exchange, although he looks in decline from his peak years.
Chris Eubanks, who impressed at Wimbledon, will take plenty of confidence and his big serve into the event, with the American third favourite at 9.08/1, while the likes of Ben Shelton and Maxime Cressy further big-servers down the field who should enjoy conditions.
I'd like the chances of Shelton more, if he wasn't in top seed Fritz's bracket. Cressy and Isner have an opportunity in the easier second quarter (Evans' bracket).
Finally, we also see the return to the main tour of Kei Nishikori, also in Fritz's first quarter. Now 33-years-old, the Japanese starts off against Jordan Thompson, having played a few hard court events on the Challenger Tour - his first activity since October 2021.
Losses to Alex Michelsen and Denis Kudla in those suggest that the former world number four has some way to go before getting close to recapturing former glories. Still, it will be fascinating to see his level both in Atlanta this week and if he continues on the main tour over the next couple of months.