- Rune faces Auger-Aliassime in 'in-form' battle
- Djokovic heavy favourite against Tsitsipas
- Dan Weston previews the semi-finals of the Paris Masters
One run has to end as Rune faces Auger-Aliassime
Holger Rune's incredible run continued with a victory by way of retirement against Carlos Alcaraz last night, which puts the world number one's participation in the ATP Finals in some doubt. Regardless, it's now 14 matches in just over two weeks for Rune, and he's 17-2 in his last four tournaments, which is clearly an incredible achievement for the Dane.
However, opponent Felix Auger-Aliassime has now won 16 matches in a row himself indoors, winning events in Florence, Antwerp and Basel, and is featuring in back to back to back events. Saying that, given the ease in which the Canadian won his title in Basel, his workload has been very slightly less.
Auger-Aliassime's return advantage sees him as favourite
I'm surprised that Auger-Aliassime is priced up at 1.501/2 to get the win. Surprised, because I thought he'd be bigger-priced given Rune's rune of form, and I was hoping so - because I think the current market line is about right, and a bigger price would have been some value. The duo met in the Basel final several weeks ago, with Auger-Aliassime around 1.351/3 that day. Ability differential seems to come on return, with Auger-Aliassime having around a 4% edge on return points won indoors this year.
Djokovic strong favourite to continue Paris domination
The second semi-final looks more of a formality with Novak Djokovic continuing his amazing record in this event this week and still targeting a 7th Paris Masters title. He faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, in a repeat of the Astana final several weeks ago, when Djokovic was priced up at around 1.271/4, which is very similar to today's market line of 1.241/4.
Djokovic won that match in straight sets and has won their last six meetings, illustrating the task ahead for Tsitsipas. The Greek man was rather fortunate last night in set one against Tommy Paul, hauling himself back from several tough spots on serve, and Djokovic won't be as likely to give him those opportunities, given his 8% advantage on return points won this year indoors. It would be a real surprise if Djokovic didn't have the opportunity to lift yet another Paris Masters trophy tomorrow.