- Djokovic heavy favourite for seventh Paris title
- Rune on superb run including five top ten wins
- Djokovic data showing he's beyond elite indoors
Rune's run continues with another top 10 victory
Novak Djokovic goes for his 7th Paris Masters title this afternoon in the French capital in a stunning run in the traditional end of season Masters going back to 2009. Today's opponent, Holger Rune, was just six years old when Djokovic won that first Paris title, but comes into the match having won his last four matches as a pre-match underdog, and going 13-1 in his last three events - just one defeat to Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Basel final a week ago.
Rune has beaten five top 10 players in those 14 matches and given this, we have to give him a level of healthy respect even though as we've discussed through the week, he must be absolutely shattered following those 14 matches since mid-October.
Djokovic unbeaten indoors in 2022
Djokovic dropped his first set in 13 indoor matches last night against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and needed a final set tiebreak to usurp the Greek man in a dramatic three-setter. His only loss indoors this year was in the Laver Cup exhibition to Auger-Aliassime, so he's unbeaten in main tour events indoors in 2022.
Data points to Djokovic being a heavy favourite
The Serb, given this and his long-term pedigree, is unsurprisingly a strong market favourite at 1.271/4 to win that 7th Paris title, and the market line looks very justified. Djokovic is running at an ultra-stellar 118% combined service/return points won figure indoors this year, a level which if he can maintain it, is virtually unbeatable. Rune's 107% combined is very strong - around top five level - but pales into insignificance compared to Djokovic's surface data.
Quite simply, Djokovic indoors does look pretty much as good as it gets. Holding 93% on serve and breaking opposition 32% of the time, he can stave off service pressure if it comes, and convert chances on return at a decent rate as well. Usually a player will have some form of preference to serve or return, but Djokovic indoors looks as complete as it gets - and due to this, looks a justified strong favourite to defeat Rune today.