ATP Paris Masters Day Four Tips: Markets accurate on competitive day four

• Early exit for Rafa Nadal
• Lorenzo Musetti to bow out
• Pablo Carreno-Busta's serve to be key

Medvedev and Nadal exit in deciding sets

The main talking points in the French capital yesterday were the three set defeats of Medvedev and Nadal, to Alex De Minaur and Tommy Paul respectively, which has really opened up the draw in terms of making the final from the top half of the draw. Novak Djokovic - now without several of his main competitors - is now into 2.021/1 on the Exchange for his 7th Paris Masters title.

As for our pick, Jack Draper was pretty unlucky in defeat to Frances Tiafoe, going 0/7 on break points, with all being at critical stages of sets. That's illustrative which I've often discussed - that top level tennis matches are so often decided by fine margins and who takes their chances.

If that ensures Draper is a little under-rated at the start of next year, I'm fine with that and I'm pretty sure that only bad luck with injuries will prevent him having a very impressive 2023.

We have the usual mix of theoretical mismatches and competitive matches on the schedule today, as tends to be the case in major tournaments, with the markets anticipating Felix Auger-Aliassime, Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas to progress into the quarter-finals without too much difficulty.

Rune surely giving Rublev the fitness edge

Several of the competitive matches where I'm in line with the market are Alex De Minaur versus Frances Tiafoe, with my numbers also making the Australian a marginal favourite, and indeed, he's chalked up at 1.814/5 on the Exchange. Plus, it's so tricky to price up Holger Rune right now, having just eventually eased to victory over Hubert Hurkacz yesterday but now having played 12 matches in just over a fortnight.

I make Andrey Rublev slight favourite for their match based on numbers, with the market going further in favour of Rublev at 1.715/7, which is fairly understandable based on that scheduling from Rune.

No market over-reaction on Musetti

Despite recent improvement, I'm not entirely sold on Lorenzo Musetti in quicker conditions, but I was hoping for more of a market over-reaction to recent form, which hasn't happened.

Opponent Casper Ruud is 1.728/11 to defeat the Italian today, which looks about right to me - his superior serve should be the deciding factor indoors this morning.

Carreno-Busta with serve advantage over Paul

Finally, on a day where I'm impressed with the market's pricing, I saw the Tommy Paul line at 2.186/5 against Pablo Carreno-Busta and thought it looked generous, but further study suggests it's not far off the mark.

On hard courts this year, Carreno-Busta has won around 3% more service points, with not much of a disadvantage on return, so the Spaniard looks the justified favourite against Rafa Nadal's conqueror today.