Hurkacz with greater experience in Masters finals
Starting at 2100 UK time, Hubert Hurkacz and Pablo Carreno-Busta meet in Montreal, with Hurkacz looking to build on his solitary Masters 1000 level title which he picked up in Miami last year. This is uncharted territory for Carreno-Busta though, with the Spaniard's win over Dan Evans last night his first ever win in a Masters semi-final.
With there being more evidence that Hurkacz has the upside to cope with the higher level moments, it's probably quite unsurprising that he's the pre-match favourite at a current 1.664/6. It's a slightly shorter line than their previous meetings last summer, where the duo were priced around even money apiece. One of those was a final, indoors in Metz, with Hurkacz picking up a straight-set victory.
Carreno-Busta with better short and medium-term data
The two players have had rather contrasting routes to the final, with Carreno-Busta's set dropped against Evans last night the first he dropped in the tournament. Conversely, Hurkacz has had to battle through four three-setters to get to this stage, including fighting back from a set down in two of the four matches. As you might imagine, this does give Carreno-Busta a significant edge based on data from the last week in this tournament in isolation.
Looking at a more relevant longer-term sample, such as data on hard court in 2022, there's a further interesting dynamic to discuss. There's not much in the serve data for both players, with the duo both holding serve just shy of 90% on hard court this year, but Carreno-Busta has a nice edge on return, winning 4% more points on return.
Carreno-Busta the value pick
Considering this, and the routes which the two players have taken to reach the final - Hurkacz should be more fatigued as well - I can't help thinking that Carreno-Busta looks the value pick here. There's not much at all to suggest Hurkacz should be favourite except for the fact that he's won a Masters title already so has experience of this stage, but that's not enough evidence to make him a pretty solid favourite, which is what the market thinks.