ATP Montreal Day Three Tips: Medvedev versus Kyrgios the highlight

Kyrgios' serve will play a big part in Medvedev clash

You only have to look at the top of the draw to work out today's highlight - Daniil Medvedev versus Nick Kyrgios - what a match this could be. The top seed Medvedev is the 1.528/15 favourite to win, with Kyrgios the underdog.

Both players come into the match on the back of titles last week, with Kyrgios winning in Washington and Medvedev in Los Cabos, and Kyrgios of course made the final of Wimbledon recently as well.

Has there ever been a stage of his career where Kyrgios has been more consistent? I'm not so sure there has been.

This is why Kyrgios is a considerably shorter price to their last meeting which took place at the Australian Open in January. That ended up in a four-set win for Medvedev, priced at 1.21/5, but I think that everyone understands that the gap between the duo has closed hugely since then.

In fact, the dominant serve of Kyrgios has a higher service points won percentage this year on hard court than Medvedev, and if he can keep his strong serve going, Kyrgios could cause a shock result tonight.

Market finding it tough to split Brooksby and Bautista-Agut

There aren't many other matches which the market thinks will be too competitive, with there being an abundance of pre-match favourites priced around the 1.402/5 mark or below. However, one match which the market is finding it tough to split the two players is the clash between Jenson Brooksby and Roberto Bautista-Agut.

Brooksby, who picked up a winner for us on Monday, is the very slight 2.0421/20 underdog here, but beat Bautista-Agut as a marginal favourite in slower conditions in Miami in March. Bautista-Agut, much more of a competent clay-courter than Brooksby, got revenge on clay in Madrid in May.

Hard court data this year makes it tricky to choose between the duo also, so a competitive clash should be in prospect. The conditions might favour Brooksby slightly, but I can't quibble too much with the market line here.

Cilic with chances against Khachanov

With there being such an abundance of short-priced favourites today, finding some pre-match value is tricky. If I was forced to pick a spot today, it would be Marin Cilic against Karen Khachanov, although there's a slight worry about Cilic's lack of activity in the last couple of months.

However, the Croat easily beat countryman Borna Coric in round one, and has better hard court data this year than Khachanov. Cilic is priced at 2.0811/10 for the win, which based purely on those numbers, looks to be some value - the numbers have him as a slight favourite.

Khachanov has been in pretty uninspiring form of late, with a number of defeats as favourite, and heavy losses as a big-priced underdog, so I wouldn't be surprised if Cilic prevailed tonight.