ATP Montreal Day Five Tips: Kyrgios strong market favourite in Montreal

Kyrgios continues fantastic run of performances

Nick Kyrgios looks like he's banished the inconsistencies which have plagued him throughout his career and is now playing some magnificent tennis - the type of which most people have always thought him capable of, but that he has rarely produced. A straight-sets win over Alex De Minaur yesterday sees the Australian top the outright market for the tournament at 2.546/4.

Today, Kyrgios faces Hubert Hurkacz, who was pushed more than anticipated by Albert Ramos yesterday, eventually progressing via a final set tiebreak. Kyrgios is the 1.402/5 favourite to continue his good run of form with another victory, which is quite a bit shorter than he was for the semi-final on grass in Halle in June between the duo. That day, Hurkacz won a final set tiebreak to defeat Kyrgios, so a Kyrgios win isn't a foregone conclusion.

However, on hard court this year, Kyrgios has won 3% more service points and also several percentage points more return points. Given the level he's played at of late, this market price is difficult to dispute.

Draper needing to serve well to push Carreno-Busta

The other fairly strong pre-match favourite today is Pablo Carreno-Busta, who faces the British qualifier Jack Draper - the story of the tournament so far as he continues his steep career progression. Draper was the beneficiary of Gael Monfils' retirement yesterday, while Carreno-Busta impressed in beating Jannik Sinner and is yet to drop a set all tournament.

If Carreno-Busta, who is the 1.4840/85 favourite, serves well and consistently, he should have too much for Draper, although Draper's strong return game could put some consistent pressure on the Spaniard. Data suggests that Draper's serve numbers are being dragged down by a low first serve percentage, and if he can resolve that then he could fly up the rankings.

Evans with chances for match with Paul

Draper's fellow Brit Dan Evans is also in action this evening as he faces Tommy Paul, who is the 1.684/6 favourite to beat the man from Birmingham. Both players have won their last two matches as underdogs, so are on a similar trend this week.

Paul has a better record on hard court this year, winning a higher percentage of matches, but there isn't much to suggest this is sustainable. Evans, for example, has actually won a higher percentage of points in these matches. Numbers-wise, Paul has the better serve and Evans the superior return - if I had to go one way here, it would be Evans as the pre-match underdog.

Auger-Aliassime again looking slightly short-priced

Finally, there's a cracking match in prospect between two young players already in the top 10. Felix Auger-Aliassime is 1.645/8 to get past Casper Ruud, and I'm a little surprised by this line. On hard court this year, Ruud has better service and return numbers, and I continue to think Auger-Aliassime is slightly over-rated by the markets.

Perhaps today's price is down to Ruud's shoulder problem last month, and a pretty brutal three-setter yesterday against Roberto Bautista-Agut, so I can cut the market a little slack here, but I'll keep looking for opportunities to find spots where the market over values the Canadian.