ATP Madrid Outright Tips: Long-shot Opelka should enjoy the quick conditions

Dan Weston
01 May 2022
3:00 min read

Rafa Nadal's record in Madrid is less impressive than at other clay venues...

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With this week's ATP finals in Munich and Estoril concluding a little later, it's time to preview the week ahead in Madrid as the Madrid Masters commences. Dan Weston returns to discuss the event in advance...

"Service points won and service hold percentages are markedly above the ATP clay-court mean, and at around 64% and 79% respectively over the last few years at the venue, are more in line with hard court numbers."

Quick conditions anticipated in Madrid

A prize pool in excess of $6.5m ensures that the world's best will turn up in the Spanish capital over the coming week for what is a rather unusual clay court event on the ATP calendar. Perhaps not providing ideal preparation for the upcoming French Open, conditions in Madrid are far quicker than the average clay court.

Service points won and service hold percentages are markedly above the ATP clay-court mean, and at around 64% and 79% respectively over the last few years at the venue, are more in line with hard court numbers. Aces per game and tiebreaks per set are also far higher than the ATP clay average, giving additional evidence that we should not expect a tournament dominated by traditional clay-courters.

In fact, I can remember a few times over recent years that there's been some value in a couple of first set tiebreak markets for matches involving big-servers, and of course if that situation arises during the tournament, I'll advise in the daily columns.

Nadal's record here not as great as other clay venues

The serve-oriented dynamic at the event also creates some issues for Rafa Nadal. A few people might be thinking along the lines of 'clay event in Spain - Rafa is guaranteed to win' but he's only won the tournament five times in his career. I say 'only' half in jest, because it's still the record here for an individual player, but by the same token, is far from the level of dominance which he's exhibited in other clay events in slower conditions where he's not a million miles from being unbeatable.

The King of Clay hasn't been crowned here since 2017, and a number of big-servers or players who prefer quicker conditions have either won the event or got to the final in perhaps unexpected circumstances, including Roger Federer (twice winner), Tomas Berdych, Andy Murray and Matteo Berrettini. On this basis, don't rule out a big-server or a player who performs well in pacy conditions to make a surprise run in the tournament.

Stacked top half of the draw in prospect

Eight players are fortunate enough to be seeded to get a first round bye, and from the top half of the draw, it's going to be extremely competitive with Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud, Rafa Nadal and the sensation of 2022 Carlos Alcaraz all in the same section. Nadal is the tournament favourite at a current 3.7511/4, with Alcaraz second in the market at 4.84/1, and Djokovic slightly further back trading at 6.86/1.

Given this, I'd probably anticipate any surprise runs from players coming from the bottom half of the draw, which features Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Zverev as seeds with byes. Only Tsitsipas, at 6.25/1 on the Exchange, is in single-digit pricing for the event from the bottom half of the draw, which illustrates the top-heavy nature of how the draw has developed.

Opelka could threaten in these conditions

Several unseeded players in the bottom half of the draw to keep a watch for include Jannik Sinner, the big-serving Reilly Opelka whose serve is going to be very difficult to break over the coming week in conditions which should assist, and Sebastian Korda who reached the semi-final this week in Estoril and is a young player of high potential. Unfortunately, Opelka and Korda meet in the first round, which should be one of the matches of the round. Opelka has already won a clay title this season in slightly quicker conditions in Houston, so I'm slightly surprised to see him a pre-match underdog for the match.

The outright market is still forming, but I've seen Opelka available at 125/1 elsewhere, and either an each-way spot on the American, or a back-to-lay doesn't look the worst shout in these conditions in the easier bottom half of the draw if you can catch some early prices.

Of the seeded players in that bottom half, Zverev and Tsitsipas have the better clay data over the last year than the other two, and look to be favourites to progress out of their brackets, but let's have a long-shot on Opelka to create a stir in Madrid over the coming week.

Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings