Berrettini lays down marker ahead of Wimbledon
For the second week in a row, Matteo Berrettini lifted a grass court warm-up event for Wimbledon, taking the Queen's Club title dropping just one set in the process. While the calibre of opposition which he's defeated haven't been premium quality in general - no-one inside the top 30 in the last two weeks - Berrettini has laid down a pretty significant marker ahead of Wimbledon.
Medvedev again favourite for a grass court warm-up event
One player who won't be at SW19 is world number one Daniil Medvedev, and the Russian lost for the second consecutive final on grass, this time against Hubert Hurkacz, who could be another dangerous player in the Wimbledon draw. Medvedev, who enjoys quicker conditions in general, is clearly trying to make the most of this run of grass court tournaments and is again in action this week in Mallorca, where he is top seed.
In his quest to finally win one of these warm-up events, Medvedev is again the pre-tournament favourite. Available at 4.3100/30 currently on the Exchange, he's slightly ahead of Nick Kyrgios 5.04/1 and Stefanos Tsitsipas, whose price should settle at around 8.07/1 prior to his first match. Kyrgios will have to do it the hard way as an unseeded player without a bye, while Medvedev and Tsitsipas need to win one fewer match to lift the trophy - a factor which should be considered when pricing up the outright market.
Kyrgios a challenge to the top seed
The draw has pitted top seed Medvedev and Kyrgios together in the top bracket, so the duo could meet in the quarter-finals, which seems a pretty likely prospect. Given considerations for Wimbledon in the two weeks following this week, Kyrgios' level against Medvedev should give some useful insight into the Australian's potential to do well at the world's premier grass-court event.
Griekspoor favourite in weak second quarter
Quarter two looks weak, with a number of clay-courters, and with Pablo Carreno-Busta the seed with a bye. The Spaniard has a very poor career record on grass, and the winner of the clash between Tallon Griekspoor and Feliciano Lopez - who even at 40 years of age and coming here off a terrible run of results could still be a threat on his favoured grass - looks well set to meet either Medvedev or Kyrgios in the semi-finals. However, even Griekspoor, who is favourite to beat Lopez, would be a big underdog against the higher profile duo from quarter one.
In the bottom half of the draw, Denis Shapovalov looks a big favourite to proceed from Q3 - again with a lot of clay-courters in that quarter - with Tsitsipas favourite in Q4 but with some tricky possible opposition, with all players in that bracket at least pretty competent. However, I do think that the winner of Medvedev and Kyrgios in Q1 will be the player to beat here.
Norrie facing difficult top quarter in Eastbourne
Over in Eastbourne, quality of the seeded players is slightly lower but the overall field quality looks stronger, without as many clay-courters in the 28 man draw. Conditions should be slightly slower than average for grass courts, based on historical data over the last few years which has service points won and aces per game lower than the ATP grass court average figures.
As said, the field looks competitive. Brit Cameron Norrie is top seed in home conditions, and is the marginal pre-tournament favourite at around the 7.06/1 mark ahead of Jannik Sinner 7.613/2, and slightly further back, Sebastian Korda and Alex de Minaur. Into double digit pricing are Taylor Fritz and Diego Schwartzman who are seeds with first-round byes, alongside Norrie and Sinner.
Norrie has a tough quarter one, with the likes of Brandon Nakashima, Dan Evans, Adrian Mannarino, Maxime Cressy and Reilly Opelka all very capable of a strong run in this event. This really looks like a quarter where numerous players will consider themselves with a decent chance of reaching the business end of proceedings. Quarters three and four also look pretty strong.
Brooksby with downgrade in opposition in quarter two
Compared to quarter two, that's definitely the case. With clay-courter Schwartzman as the main seed in that bracket, and the other players being wild cards or clay-courters, Jenson Brooksby could emerge as the quarter winner. The American is going through a pretty tricky run of late but has huge potential, and the downgrade in opposition quality in his bracket could be just what he needs to get back to winning ways. He's at 26.025/1 in the outrights, and is an interesting long-shot option.