ATP Doha Marseille Santiago Betting Tips: Garin justified as favourite in home country

Swiss Tennis Player Roger Federer
Roger Federer returns to the tour in Doha after a year's absence...

The ATP Tour continues throughout the coming week with three more tournaments taking place over the next seven days. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, previews the events...

"Christian Garin at around 6.05/1 looks an extremely justified favourite in his home country, while of the other seeds, Laslo Djere also looks to have more clay ability than most in the field and he's slightly bigger at around 7.06/1."

Three surfaces covered in this week's ATP events

There's something for every player in the coming week with events on outdoor hard in Doha, indoor hard in Marseille and clay courters in Santiago, and with matches taking place for the majority of each day, there will be plenty of on-court action on an almost 24/7 basis.

Matches get started in several hours in Doha, which is the first tournament to get started. Historical data over the last few years suggests conditions are likely to be quite medium-paced for hard court, with there being no real likely advantage for big servers in Qatar. The last few winners at the venue, probably since Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's win in 2012, haven't really fitted the big-server dynamic.

Federer return the main talking point in Doha

The main talking point in Doha is the return of Roger Federer, who hasn't been seen on tour since he lost to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open at the start of last year. It's naturally very difficult to ascertain Federer's likely level this week given that year-long period of inactivity, and it looks like the market also feels the same way, making him slightly bigger-priced than Dominic Thiem and Andrey Rublev at around the 5.04/1 mark.

Thiem and Rublev are very marginally shorter in the outright market and that duo, along with Federer and Denis Shapovalov, are the four seeds with first-round byes. The Canadian, Shapovalov, is priced larger at around 9.08/1 pre-tournament.

In my view, Rublev is the best player numbers-wise in the field, and I have him as having the highest upside as well. The problem is that he's coming off a title in Rotterdam last week and even though he's probably going to get a Wednesday start in the coming week, it's asking a lot for him to back that up again this week given the potential fatigue implications from five matches in the Netherlands and subsequent travel.

The other major issue here in Doha is the previously-referred to intangible of Federer's level. He probably got the better of the seeds in the draw in the bottom half with Shapovalov, but also faces a test in the early rounds with Dan Evans and Borna Coric potentially tricky opposition in rounds two and three.

Medvedev well-placed for Marseille success

A number of players from Rotterdam have unsurprisingly made a different trip to Rublev, and gone to play another indoors event in Europe, at Marseille. Conditions should be on the quicker side for indoor events, with aces per game and service points won figures at the venue being a fair bit higher than the ATP mean figure for indoor hard court over the last few years, and we should see a relatively serve-dominated event with few breaks, tiebreaks and potentially some variance with there being less break chances than the average tournament.

After a surprise loss to Dusan Lajovic last week in Rotterdam, Daniil Medvedev should be well-rested and it's unsurprising to see the Russian priced up as the tournament favourite at the 3.259/4 mark in general market pricing. He's marginally shorter than Stefanos Tsitsipas 4.03/1, with the likes of Karen Khachanov, Jannik Sinner and Ugo Humbert the other players at the top of the market.

To me, Medvedev is the player to beat here and looks the best player in the event by some distance. I'd be much happier with his price than Tsitsipas, who continues to look a little over-rated by the markets even with a relatively kind draw. Tsitsipas, as second seed, is in the bottom quarter and there aren't many players likely to test him in that bracket, or indeed the bottom half - the bottom half of the draw looks weaker than the top, in my opinion, with the top half having Sinner as a player without a round one bye, and the high potential Emil Ruusuvuori also lurking in the second quarter as well.

Garin a justified favourite in Santiago

Clay courters gather in Santiago, Chile, for an event on their favoured surface although historical data suggests that conditions may not be as slow as is often the case for South American clay tournaments.

As with the other 250 level events this week, there are four seeds with first-round byes in what looks quite a level-quality tournament. Christian Garin at around 6.05/1 looks an extremely justified favourite in his home country, while of the other seeds, Laslo Djere also looks to have more clay ability than most in the field and he's slightly bigger at around 7.06/1. Pablo Andujar is also capable of a run to the latter stages, but final seed with a bye Benoit Paire has been very mediocre since the tour resumed and even with a player so enigmatic as Paire, it would be a surprise if the Frenchman managed to turn that around with four straight wins in Santiago even with a round one bye and then one of two qualifiers in round two.

Garin has good clay data (over 103% combined service/return points won over the last 18 months) and has a fairly decent draw as well with a bye in round one, two qualifiers in his bracket and Federico Coria as the other non-bye seed in his quarter. He looks as good a shout as any in this event at that general market price of 6.05/1.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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