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Alcaraz slight favourite ahead of returning Djokovic
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Novak in strong bottom half of the draw
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Alcaraz looks the pick
Djokovic returns after a month's absence
So, with Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev exiting on the same day last week, and Jannik Sinner picking up the Rogers Cup title, the top two seeds last week will probably feel like they have some additional work to do ahead of the US Open which starts in several week's time in New York.
No doubt, a confidence-boosting title here at the Cincinnati Masters would be a real positive for the duo, but their ability to do so is reduced by a certain Novak Djokovic in the draw, who returns to ATP Tour action for the first time since the Wimbledon final a month ago.
Outright market leaning towards Alcaraz
Djokovic's loss to Alcaraz in five sets at SW19 stopped a run of 13 wins in a row for the Serb, who also picked up the French Open title with minimal fuss in June.
The effect of Djokovic's participation here means that Alcaraz is now 3.711/4 from a pre-tournament 2.77/4 last week, while Medvedev is out to 8.27/1 for the title.
Djokovic fits in just behind Alcaraz as the tournament second favourite, at 3.929/10. If you think that last week's winner Sinner can go back-to-back titles, the Italian is currently trading at 15.529/2, with all other players in the field priced in excess of 20.019/1 on the Exchange.
Bottom half of the draw looks stacked
The positive for Alcaraz, and probably at least part of the reason why the Spaniard has a slight edge over Djokovic in the outright market, is that he has avoided both Medvedev and Djokovic in his half of the draw. Djokovic was always going to be in the bottom half, but Medvedev could have been in the top half, but instead, Stefanos Tsitsipas is in that bracket instead.
Further, Djokovic and Medvedev will also have to deal with the threat of Sinner in their bottom half of the draw.
If you throw in the likes of Matteo Berrettini, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz and last week's runner-up Alex De Minaur into the bottom half of the draw too, it's clearly stacked and there aren't going to be many easy matches in the early rounds for either Djokovic or Medvedev.
Alcaraz with kinder draw
Conversely, Alcaraz has quite a straightforward first few rounds, with Tommy Paul (who beat him last week in Toronto) being the toughest opponent he's likely to face before the fourth round, where he is seeded to face Casper Ruud. Tsitsipas, or Andrey Rublev, would be Alcaraz's likely semi-final opponent, so you can see how different the difficulty level of opposition is for the world number one, as opposed to his main rivals for the title.
On this basis, I'm willing to give Alcaraz my support to get perfect preparation for the US Open with a title in Cincinnati this week. If his career continues along the current trajectory, this might be one of the last times you see prices as big as this on Alcaraz for quite some time.