-
Market changes opinion due to this week's performances
-
Djokovic now with better hard court data
-
Three sets looks very possible
Alcaraz struggles see him as underdog for the final
Before the event, Carlos Alcaraz was the favourite to win the tournament. Not only this, but throughout most of the week, Alcaraz was the favourite. Today, he's the underdog, with Novak Djokovic now assuming that status, with the Serb trading at 1.684/6 at the time of writing on the Exchange.
For such a marked change of events to occur, there needs to be reasoning. The clear evidence here is that Alcaraz has been pushed to a deciding set in every one of his four matches to get to this stage, including by two qualifiers, so the inference is that he's not playing particularly well currently and is grinding out the wins without dominating opposition.
Conversely, Djokovic is yet to drop a set in this event but was pushed 7-6 7-5 by Alexander Zverev last night, winning just four more points than the German during what was a fairly serve-oriented match.
Market support for Djokovic makes sense
The facts remain though that Djokovic has won a considerably higher percentage of points on serve and return this week in Cincinnati, and the market support is understandable on that basis.
The difference in performance across this week has also skewed the season-long hard court numbers (they make up almost a quarter of each player's sample) in Djokovic's favour, so it's really difficult to want to disagree with the market here - as it has been this week in America, it's been pretty efficient in my view.
Previous matches have been extremely competitive
However, it's worth pointing out that Alcaraz has history for beating Djokovic as an underdog. This happened on quick clay in Madrid last year (7-6 in the deciding set), and 6-4 in a decider at Wimbledon, on grass.
The only Djokovic victory over Alcaraz was at the French Open in June, where the Spanish phenom struggled with his fitness and lost as a pre-match favourite. So, every one of the three career meetings between the duo has been won by the pre-match underdog. It will take a Djokovic win to change that sequence.
All things considered, we should be anticipating a fantastic clash with two players at the top of the sport fighting it out for a prestigious title. Three sets wouldn't shock me either, especially given the relatively close previous matches between the two players, with that a 2.3811/8 underdog outcome on the Exchange.