ATP Cincinnati Final Tips: Coric not without chance of shock title

Coric looking to recapture former glories

It's been almost four years since Borna Coric was challenging to be a top ten player, with the Croatian player - then just 21 years of age - having a career high ranking of 12. At that point in time, such an achievement looked to be a formality, but a combination of poor form and more relevantly, injuries, looked to have put paid to Coric's potential to consistently compete at that level.

Coric came into this event ranked outside the top 150 after missing 12 months from March 2021-March 2022 with a shoulder injury, although that ranking will obviously improve regardless of whether he wins tonight or not. Initially on his return to tour, things didn't go too well, with a series of defeats against solid opposition mixed in with the odd win as a pre-match favourite.

Then a week in Italy on the Challenger Tour yielded a clay-court title, and things have hugely progressed since then - even in Hamburg before he retired with a leg injury he picked up two underdog victories over decent players.

Tsitsipas favourite for serve-oriented clash

Five more underdog victories later and Coric is facing Tsitsipas in the final here in Cincinnati, and I'm expecting a tight match with few break point chances.

Last time they met, at the US Open in 2020, Coric won a four and a half hour marathon featuring two tiebreaks and three single-break sets, and this dynamic looks most likely given the serve-oriented nature of the duo, and the relatively quick conditions in Montreal.

As the more illustrious player, and top 10 regular, Tsitsipas is the pre-match favourite at 1.684/6 although has drifted a handful of ticks in recent hours. Based on the duo's 2022 hard court data this looks about right to me, with Coric actually having marginally better return numbers and Tsitsipas having a bigger serve edge.

This week also, the duo have similar data - both winning over 70% of service points, again pointing to the likely serve-oriented dynamic of this match, and Coric's ability to save break points over expectation (unlikely to be sustainable) has seen him hold serve almost 95% in Cincinnati this week.

If he can perform the same again, a shock title which will propel him up the rankings ahead of the US Open is certainly possible.