The ATP Tour rapidly moves to another Masters 1000 event in the build-up to the US Open - ATP Cincinnati - so Dan Weston previews the best of Monday's action...
"It’s very rare that my model finds the Canadian some value, and his market price is probably influenced by four defeats in his last five where he’s struggled to create break point opportunities."
Medvedev signals intent ahead of US Open
Daniil Medvedev gave a huge warning sign to the competition ahead of the US Open as he lifted the Toronto Masters trophy yesterday with a straightforward win over Reilly Opelka in the final.
Although the Russian eased to the title, it's worth pointing out that he only faced one opponent ranked lower than 30 (and he almost lost that), so the outright market for the US Open should possibly be considering this - his price is now 5.79/2, with Novak Djokovic still the 1.9210/11 favourite for the final Grand Slam of the year.
Djokovic skipping these warm-up events
Djokovic will be coming in pretty cold to New York in terms of match preparation, and he's decided not to feature in Cincinnati over the coming week.
Medvedev is again the top seed, but enjoys a couple of days off with the first round taking place over the next two days - he has earned a first-round bye.
Despite eight players getting those byes, there's still plenty of high-quality action ahead on day two, after there were wins for Benoit Paire and Guido Pella yesterday on a low-profile day one. I can never understand why tournaments choose to play just two matches on a Sunday - it's a real head-scratcher.
Murray faces Gasquet in veterans' clash
Some of the high quality matches anticipated today include Alex De Minaur versus Filip Krajinovic, with De Minaur's price looking about right as the 1.834/5 favourite.
Karen Khachanov, the Olympic silver medallist, faces the big-serving Kevin Anderson, while Richard Gasquet faces Andy Murray in the battle of the veterans - Gasquet looks very justified as the favourite with Murray's level this year pretty questionable away from grass.
Of the favourites, Lloyd Harris looks like being some value even as a solid 1.444/9 favourite over Yoshihito Nishioka, who has struggled on serve in recent times. On what's likely to be a fairly quick hard court, the likes of Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz should get the job done against clay-courters in Federico Delbonis and Albert Ramos, respectively.
Auger-Aliassime capable of progressing past Fucsovics
Dan Evans versus Diego Schwartzman should also be a fascinating round one clash, with the Brit certainly capable of an underdog victory at 2.608/5 in these quicker conditions.
I also like Felix Auger-Aliassime for his meeting with Marton Fucsovics. It's very rare that my model finds the Canadian some value, and his market price is probably influenced by four defeats in his last five where he's struggled to create break point opportunities. However, Fucsovics has not played a competitive match in six weeks since he lost his quarter-final at Wimbledon in straight sets to Novak Djokovic, and Auger-Aliassime at 1.728/11 looks some conservative value. My model has him at 1.501/2 in what looks like another potentially high-quality clash on a fascinating first full day in Cincinnati.
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