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ATP Cincinnati Day 1 Tips: Wawrinka still capable against most opposition

  • Dan Weston
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3:00 min read
Swiss Tennis Player Stan Wawrinka
Stan Wawrinka continues to fight in the latter stages of his career...

Following Jannik Sinner's title in Toronto, the ATP Tour continues with another high profile event this week in Cincinnati. Dan Weston returns with his thoughts on Monday's schedule...

  • Berrettini expected to prolong Auger-Aliassime's slump

  • Zverev with much to prove

  • Underdog Wawrinka the pick


Monday matches start at 16:00 this afternoon

Action in Cincinnati actually got underway last night with four matches on a low-profile day one, clashing with the main focus of the ATP Tour which was the final in Toronto, won by Jannik Sinner who defeated Alex De Minaur. I've said this before, but I'll say it again, I struggle to understand any form of logic towards having several matches played on a Sunday to start a tournament. It just makes no sense to me whatsoever.

However, given that I have no influence on ATP Tour scheduling, we must move on to 16:00 UK time today which is the start of the Monday schedule in Cincinnati, with seeded players not starting their campaigns until Wednesday in all likelihood.

Berrettini favourite against out of form Auger-Aliassime

Despite the lack of seeds in action, there's plenty of interesting match-ups in round one, with arguably the highlight being Matteo Berrettini against Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Berrettini has won four of their five previous clashes, and his loss to Sinner last week in Toronto has played out fine in terms of the subsequent form line. In fact, if he took his chances in that match (he created seven break point opportunities to Sinner's four) then it could have been a different story last week in Canada.

The market has clearly understood this and priced up the Italian at 1.564/7 to get the better of Auger-Aliassime, who is going through a worrying slump in form having lost seven of his last eight matches, and the only win being against a qualifier in Lyon back in May. Since giving a walkover in that event in the next round, he's lost four from four, all as a favourite priced at 1.608/13 or below, and often considerably shorter. You can understand why the market is so pro-Berrettini here.

Market doubting Zverev after bad loss in Canada

Another superb-looking clash is Alexander Zverev against Grigor Dimitrov, with Zverev the favourite at 1.758/11 to get the job done and move into round two. It's a repeat of the French Open fourth round meeting which they had at the start of June, with Zverev priced up at 1.454/9 and winning with ease in straight sets, dropping just eight games in the process.

Could hard court be a leveller between the duo? The market is defensive on Zverev after being thrashed last week in Toronto by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and winning just 32% of points in the match. However, Dimitrov skipped the Rogers Cup having reached the semi-finals in Washington the week before. I think the market is pretty justified in having it's doubts here, and the departure from the French Open price illustrates that.

In that Washington semi-final, Dimitrov was defeated by Dan Evans, with the Brit reversing a dreadful run of form to surprisingly pick up the title. Evans is back in action tonight after a bad loss in Toronto and faces a tough test in top 20 player Lorenzo Musetti, who is 1.814/5 to get the win.

While I'm still yet to be totally convinced on hard court by Musetti, he put up a creditable display in losing in round three last week to second seed Daniil Medvedev, winning 47% of points in a 6-4 6-4 defeat, and it will be fascinating to see which version of Evans turns up here. It's certainly not an easy one to predict.

Wawrinka can get past Nakashima

Finally, one player who is just starting out on the main tour faces another coming towards the end of his career, with Brandon Nakashima facing Stan Wawrinka. I must admit, I thought Nakashima would have kicked on more this year after a promising couple of years moving up the rankings, but I've been disappointed with his progress and is 5-8 on hard court this year on the main tour.

While Wawrinka has been sparing with his appearances on the surface this year, and clearly isn't quite the player he once was, you can't fail to be impressed with his commitment, drive and will to win even at 38 years of age. An emotional runners-up speech in Umag several weeks ago was a good example of that, and the Swiss man beat some competent opposition there in Croatia.

Wawrinka also beat Nakashima indoors in Basel last winter, priced at around 2.1411/10, and he's available at a slightly bigger price tonight at 2.285/4. In the battle of two wild-cards, I do think Wawrinka's fighting spirit can carry him across the winning line once more and pick up an underdog winner for us.

Back Stan Wawrinka to Win @ 2.285/4

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