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Mertens gives us a win double
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Swiatek leads the heavy favourites
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Keys with edge as underdog
Mertens through as big names exit
Elise Mertens doubled up for us on Thursday with a straight-set win over Lauren Davis, giving us the second winner on the Belgian this week after she defeated Garbine Muguruza on Tuesday. A tough test against Aryna Sabalenka awaits on Saturday. Anett Kontaveit and Ludmilla Samsonova were two favourites who fell in Thursday's action, while at the time of writing, Ons Jabeur is in big trouble at 1-5 down in the deciding set against Marketa Vondrousova.
On Friday, the outright market leaders are fairly short-priced for their individual matches, with tournament favourite Iga Swiatek just 1.051/20 to get past the Macedonian qualifier Cristina Bucsa. Cori Gauff (against Bernarda Pera) and Maria Sakkari (versus Lin Zhu) are also priced around the 1.201/5 mark for their clashes.
Collins surprisingly underdog against Rybakina
However, there are three matches which feature two players who look relatively well-matched. Elena Rybakina is a marginal favourite at 1.758/11 over Danielle Collins, who made the final here last year, and the semi-final in 2019.
You can see why the market is in favour of Rybakina, given the nature of each players two wins so far - hers have been easy, in straight sets, while Collins has needed three sets (including a final-set tiebreak against Karolina Muchova) in both of hers. It should be said, however, that Collins has faced tougher opposition to get to this stage.
On hard court over the last year, Rybakina has the edge on serve and Collins a similar advantage on return, so it's tough to split the duo. If forced to go one side with this at prices, it would be Collins.
Keys' serve gives her edge over Azarenka
I'm also interested in the clash between Madison Keys and Victoria Azarenka, with Azarenka winning their most recent meeting in October last year in Guadalajara. In that match, Azarenka was priced up at around 1.9010/11 and won in three sets, but for this, Keys looks a decent price today at 2.186/5.
The American's serve numbers are quite a bit better, winning over 3% more service points won on hard court over the last 12 months, and Keys' solid start to 2023 (albeit against weak opposition) can only be viewed as a positive as well.
I think she can get the better of Azarenka on Friday at an underdog price.
Improving Kalinina a step up for Krejcikova
The other competitive-looking match is Barbora Krejcikova against Anhelina Kalinina. Krejcikova has eased into this stage, dropping just nine games in four sets so far, but faces much tougher opposition on Friday.
Kalinina has struggled on serve on the main tour, but has rapidly improved her return numbers of late, making the market's line of 1.748/11 about Krejicikova as favourite about right. Kalinina will need to serve well to win, but it should be a fascinating match-up between two players with slightly different styles.