Australian Open Women's Singles: Can anyone stop Swiatek taking Barty's trophy?

• Swiatek firm favourite to win first Aus Open title

• Garcia looks good to build on breakthrough

• Pegula in to 13/1 after big win

• Samsonova one to watch at 47/1

Swiatek clear of the field

Novak Djokovic is streets ahead of the field in the men's tournament and there's a similar dynamic in the women's event too, with Iga Swiatek the 3.3512/5 favourite on the Betfair Exchange. The Pole is the only player in the field in single-digit pricing.

This represents a change in recent women's tennis where there has been an open, competitive feel to the outright markets and few clear favourites. Swiatek at the French Open last year was an obvious outlier there and further back the betting was dominated by Serena Williams in her pomp.

Don't overreact to Sabalenka's Adelaide win

Even after winning the Adelaide warm-up event, Aryna Sabalenka has not shortened to single-digit pricing.

She's currently trading at 10.09/1 on the Betfair Exchange but I'd be careful not to overvalue that win, which came having received a first round bye and then, in her last three matches, facing no opponent inside the top 30 and two ranked 90+.

Sabalenka was pushed hard by Ludmilla Samsonova in her opener before the Belarussian's experience told in her 7-6 7-6 win. Samsonova had more chances in the match and more will come on her later in this preview.

Swiatek's firm favouritism cannot be disputed. She leads the tour on combined service/return points won on hard court in the last 12 months by some distance, and is winning over 50% of return points - a truly incredible achievement.

The pressure Swiatek puts on her opponents' serves is quite something. She would seriously have to drop in performance level for many of the players in Melbourne to have a chance of challenging her.

Garcia leads pack of challengers

Caroline Garcia 13.525/2 has had a real breakthrough in the last six months, winning the WTA Finals at the end of the year. Not only this, but the Frenchwoman has improved both her service and return numbers markedly over the second half of 2022, and deserves her place as one of the leading contenders from the chasing pack.

Another player I'm keen to keep an eye on prior to Thursday's draw is Barbora Krejcikova 25.024/1 (pictured above) who finished the season strongly with titles in Ostrava and Tallinn.

But I want to see how she performs in Adelaide first with this being her only warm-up event of 2023. She faces Alison Riske overnight tonight.

Pegula backed after big win

Jessica Pegula (below) reached the quarter-finals here last year before being despatched by eventual winner Barty.

The world number three has shown a consistently high level on hard court, as well as improving on return in recent months.

A win over Swiatek in the United Cup last week certainly should be viewed as a positive too, although the market has picked up on her ability too, shortening her odds to 14.013/1.

Samsonova is outisder to watch

The aforementioned Samsonova 48.047/1 is a bigger-priced player of interest. She pushed Sabalenka in that loss in Adelaide and beat her in Guadalajara at the end of last season.

In fact, Samsonova was pre-match favourite on both occasions, and also picked up the Tokyo title in September as well as Cleveland and Washington in August on hard court.

Samsonova's numbers - albeit against a lower calibre of opposition to many of the contenders - are superb, being at a high level on both serve and return and running in excess of 110% combined service/return points won in the last six months.

She definitely looks one to watch, both for this event and as the season continues.

Gauff and Jabeur are too short

Finally, the likes of Ons Jabeur and Cori Gauff will have their supporters, with both priced around the 16.015/1 mark at the time of writing. However, Jabeur is running at around 103% on hard court in the last 12 months - not particularly impressive - while Gauff is even lower.

A title for Gauff last week in Auckland against a weak field will surely see her overvalued by the market in this event, and I'd be surprised if I found her to be much value over the coming weeks, or indeed, months.