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Azarenka underdog for first semi-final
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Linette needing to serve well to push Sabalenka
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Dan Weston gives his thoughts on both semi-finals
Rybakina and Azarenka in battle of previous Slam winners
Action in Melbourne gets underway at a more convenient time for European viewers on Thursday, with the first semi-final starting at 830am UK time and the second to follow immediately after. The first sees the two players with Grand Slam titles (and indeed, finals) compete for a spot in the final - Elena Rybakina versus Victoria Azarenka.
We have to go back to 2013 to find Azarenka's last Grand Slam triumph, at this venue where she beat Li Na in three sets. Indeed, she's only reached one Slam final since that year, so this is a real change in fortune although her return data this tournament so far (48% of return points won) suggests it is well deserved.
A search for opponent Rybakina's previous Slam title wouldn't take so long, having beaten Ons Jabeur in the final of Wimbledon in early July last season, and that was Rybakina's last title on the tour. Having dropped just one set so far in the event, and beating the tournament favourite Iga Swiatek in round four, Rybakina will be in confident mood that she can make another Grand Slam final.
Big change in last years match pricing
Rybakina is a solid pre-match favourite at the time of writing, priced up at 1.548/15 on the Exchange, and I think she deserves to be a favourite - 12 month hard court numbers agree with that, although imply she shouldn't be that short-priced.
However, it's worth pointing out that Azarenka has won a greater percentage of matches in the last six months across all surfaces with a higher games won and sets won percentage, and again, makes a solid case for her to be closer to even money for this clash.
Azarenka was favourite for their only career meeting in Indian Wells in March last year, also on hard court, and with all these things considered, it's really difficult not to think that she represents value at the current 2.829/5.
Sabalenka hot favourite to make first Slam final
Following this, Aryna Sabalenka is a heavy favourite at 1.241/4 to get past the surprise package of the tournament, Magda Linette. It might surprise some readers to know that Sabalenka is still yet to reach a Grand Slam final, despite being consistently ranked around the top five for several years.
We've spoken before on this column about Sabalenka's hard court data not quite tallying with her market pricing, but she's impressed in his tournament so far, holding serve almost 90% of the time, and breaking opponents in over half of her return games. When you consider that, it's hardly a surprise that Sabalenka has won all her matches in straight sets to get to this stage.
However, it wouldn't stun me if Linette was a tougher opponent than many may think. The Pole has held almost 75% across the last six months, so should be able to at least keep things pretty competitive here, and could even be capable of a big shock in what has been a tournament of shocks so far.