Australian Open Women's Day One Tips: Look to the lower-profile matches for value

Barty and Osaka in action on day one

As with the men's tournament, we have action from the top half of the women's draw tomorrow in Melbourne, so there's a quick turnaround for the likes of Paula Badosa and Barbora Krejcikova, who featured in finals in the warm-up events.

A number of the outright market leaders are also in action, with particular focus on the top two in the market, Ashleigh Barty and Naomi Osaka. Barty faces Lesia Tsurenko, and Osaka meets Maria Osorio Serrano. Both are overwhelming favourites to get round one victories and take one step closer to their seeded fourth round clash.

Another similar dynamic to the men's tournament is that there are a number of likely mismatches between seeded players and lower ranked opposition, so it's probably worth looking at some of the matches anticipated to be more competitive to look for some value.

Juan with fitness doubts ahead of Zanevska clash

It's always worth paying attention to potential injury issues, and one player who may not be fully fit is Kaja Juvan, who retired from qualifiers for Adelaide 2 last week. In normal circumstances, the 1.705/7 about the Slovenian would look very much out of line against the clay-courter, Maryna Zanevska, who has barely won a main tour match on hard court, but there's the added risk with those fitness concerns. If Juvan is in decent condition, I'd expect her to get the win here.

Paolini should have too much for Ruse

I'm a little surprised to see Jasmine Paolini only a slight favourite at 1.834/5 over Elena Ruse in what could well be a battle of the return-orientated players.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of service breaks here, and on hard courts in the last year, it is Paolini with a decent edge on data.

Ruse picked up a couple of wins as favourite in the warm-up events for this, but against pretty limited opposition, and then struggled with the step up to a higher level. While Paolini's level isn't close to Anett Kontaveit and Simona Halep, who Ruse lost to in those events, I do expect her to still have too much for Ruse in this match.

Kenin versus Keys the match of the day

Match of the day, though, looks to be the all-American clash between Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys. 2020 winner Kenin hasn't had the best couple of years since her title and is actually running at below 100% combined service/return points won on hard court in the last 12 months - accurately illustrating her struggles on tour in 2021 in particular.

Keys has had her own issues, largely focusing on injury, but will have been delighted to win in Adelaide last week, beating the likes of Cori Gauff and Elina Svitolina en route to the title. This should give her a nice confidence boost heading into this match and the tournament in general, and as long as there aren't any after-effects from playing 12 sets in a week in Adelaide, she looks to be a pretty justified favourite against her countrywoman here.

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