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Many heavy favourites in action
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Mertens with data edge over Muguruza
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Cornet underdog versus Fernandez
Big names ease through on day one
There were little in the way of shocks on the opening day of the Australian Open, with Swiatek, along with the likes of Jessica Pegula, Cori Gauff and Maria Sakkari all also safely through to Wednesday's round two on what was generally a very one-sided card with no tight three-setters.
With there being plenty in the way of strong favourites on Tuesday's card as well, there's the potential for more of the same tomorrow, and there's only a few matches where the market thinks the two players are fairly evenly matched, generally with both players not being notable names.
Muguruza experiencing decline in return data
However, the Garbine Muguruza versus Elise Mertens clash is a highlight, and it's Muguruza who is the 1.824/5 slight favourite to get the better of the Belgian overnight.
Both players aren't in the best of form, and have dropped down the rankings, although to be fair to Muguruza, her post-US Open defeats have all come as underdog against strong opposition. That's not the same for Mertens, who was beaten in straight sets as a solid favourite against Maryna Zanevska in Hobart last week, and suffered several favourite losses towards the end of 2022.
However, Mertens has much better 12 month hard court data, and 6 month all-surface data, and there's been a worrying decline in return points won from Muguruza - below 40% in that last six month period.
Unsurprisingly, that's led to a real downturn in how frequently she's broken opposition as well - around just 25% of the time - and this is a big red flag. I lean towards Mertens as an underdog here, but it's not a huge lean.
Veteran Cornet to give Fernandez a test
Another match where the two players look well-matched is Leylah Fernandez versus Alize Cornet, with the French veteran the 2.3611/8 underdog having received some market support in the runup to the encounter.
With Fernandez having better service numbers on hard court over the last year, and Cornet the edge on return, the market prices now don't look too far out of line. If forced to go one way here, it would be Cornet as the underdog, but it's a tough one to call.
More certain in terms of progressing are a number of heavy favourites on Tuesday's schedule, and they include Anett Kontaveit, Caroline Garcia, Aryna Sabalenka, Belinda Bencic and Ons Jabeur, with all of the quintet priced at around 1.152/13 or below. It would be a real surprise if any of these players exited at the first hurdle though, and there could be more of the same one-way traffic on day two.