Australian Open Men's Singles: Djokovic deserves to be favourite down under

• Novak Djokovic is odds-on to win the Australian Open

• But Daniil Medvedev provides best betting value

• Taylor Fritz worth a second glance in the market

Djokovic is deadly at present

Novak Djokovic has had support over the last week, with two major factors playing into the Serb's factor in the run-up to the Australian Open.

Firstly, the implied odds of Carlos Alcaraz needed to be redistributed after the world number one was forced to withdraw from the event with injury, and secondly, Djokovic's impressive win over second favourite Daniil Medvedev in Adelaide last week.

Winning 56% of points in the match against the second best hard courter on tour is a real show of dominance from Djokovic, and while Sebastian Korda gave him a scare in the final, Djokovic is now 30-1 on the main tour since he lost in the quarter-final of the French Open to Rafa Nadal.

If that win-loss record makes you think of the Djokovic of old, you'd better believe it. His data over the last six months is truly staggering, as illustrated by the chart below, showing 12 month hard court data and six month all-surface data for the players in the outright market priced at 50.0049/1 or below.

This data and layout makes it easy to make some assertions. First of all, you can see Djokovic in the last six months has stratospheric data, being the best server out of the main contenders by a mile, yet still recording very strong return numbers.

Plus, his improvement in this time period is evident, after a tricky first six months of 2022 where his off-court issues were as much of a talking point as his on-court performances. In short, it's utterly obvious that Djokovic should be the favourite, and you could even make the argument that the current 1.9720/21 is some value.

Nadal not in form

Conversely, 2022 Australian Open winner and Djokovic's long-time rival, Rafa Nadal, has shown a marked downturn of late - and these numbers don't even include the exhibition matches which the Spaniard has lost recently.

The highlighted line in the chart shows the drop-off of Nadal's return numbers in particular, with arguably the best returner of all-time now showing a midrange level among contenders in recent months.

While it would be foolish to write Nadal off here, you can see why he's rather friendless in the market at a current 14.013/1.

Medvedev model of consistency

Sandwiched between the duo in the market is Daniil Medvedev. The chart shows that Medvedev's performances over the year have been pretty consistent, with little movement between those six month and 12 month figures - he's one of the better returners of the contenders, with midrange service numbers.

A strong hard courter who loves quicker conditions (and he could get them here), Medvedev is the obvious threat to Djokovic, although he has lost his last four encounters with the Serb, including that semi-final in Adelaide last week.

Another problem Medvedev could face is the draw - with both him and Djokovic no longer one and two in the world, the duo could draw each other before the final, with it being possible both will be in the same half of the draw - a potential talking point for Thursday's draw, for sure.

Two to keep an eye on...

Two other players I want to highlight in advance of the draw on Thursday are Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz. The chart clearly shows a real surge in Auger-Aliassime's level over the last six months, with genuine improvement on both serve and return and he looks like a player on a nice upward curve currently.

There have definitely been times when I have felt he's over-rated, but based on this improvement, his 26.025/1 looks interesting if he is drawn in the opposite half to Djokovic and Medvedev.

Also worth watching out for is Taylor Fritz. The American is a real hard court specialist, and has impressed in the pre-Slam warm-up exhibition events with wins over Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Berrettini.

While I think the draw may need to open up for him, as with Auger-Aliassime, a kind draw could see market support for Fritz at 32.031/1.