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Tsitsipas has dominated Khachanov previously
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Djokovic heavy odds-on to see off Paul
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Dan Weston previews both semi-finals
Tsitsipas heavy favourite in first semi-final
Matches at Melbourne Park start at 330am UK time on Friday with Karen Khachanov taking on Stefanos Tsitsipas in the opener. Tsitsipas is the 1.412/5 favourite to make the final, which needs a little more debate before accepting that the market line looks accurate.
Firstly, there's not a great deal between the duo based on 12 month hard court data or 6 month all-surface data, which raises the question of whether Tsitsipas should be this short-priced.
In addition to this, the fact that the Greek man has caused difficulty to this column by winning 43 of 49 break points on return, a figure which is completely unsustainable in the long-term. So there's little doubt that variance has been on Tsitsipas' side in this event so far.
Khachanov unable to make an impact in previous meetings
If the above paragraph makes you think that a bet opposing Tsitsipas is a no-brainer, I want to complicate issues a little more now. I don't usually read too much into head-to-head matches, but Tsitsipas is 5-0 up across his career, with the last three within two years and with the two players pretty much at the same rankings as they are now as well.
Further, Tsitsipas hasn't just won all their previous meetings, he's dominated them, dropping just two of 12 sets. He's held almost 90% of the time against Khachanov, who has really struggled on serve in the matches, winning fewer than 60% of service points.
Based on their previous meetings, I have big concerns as to whether Tsitsipas simply has Khachanov's number. In addition, Khachanov has lost his last 20 main tour matches against top 10 opposition in a run going back to August 2019, bringing into question whether he has a high enough level to compete with the best on a consistent basis.
With all this in mind, I'm not convinced enough to get involved with the underdog play.
Hamstring injury seems Djokovic's most likely threat
Following this, Novak Djokovic faces Tommy Paul and is super-short at 1.071/14 to make the final. In fact, he's as short as 1.271/4 to be celebrating with the trophy on Sunday. Victory for Djokovic will mean that he breaks Andre Agassi's record of 26 consecutive wins in this tournament, which is obviously a truly incredible achievement.
As regular readers may have anticipated, Djokovic's data is far in excess of Paul's, particularly on serve, and even at such a short price it is tough to envisage the tournament favourite getting beaten on merit here - the only way which seems possible is whether his hamstring injury reoccurs.
However, Djokovic's last two performances against Andrey Rublev and Alex De Minaur have likely been his best in this year's event so far, so this somewhat allays any fitness doubts. A Djokovic loss tomorrow would be a real shock.