Australian Open Men's Final tips: Nadal can triumph in long match

Nadal has come good on predictions

Prior to the tournament, I recommended Rafa Nadal at 11.5021/2, at the time arguing that Djokovic - even if participating - seemed on the decline, and that the batch of up-and-comers touted as likely usurpers of Djokovic's dominance - the likes of Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas and Thiem - were not yet supplying convincing-enough on-court numbers to warrant the suggestion.

A fortnight on, Nadal has forced his way through to the final, his brain unwilling to accept his body's protestations. As has Medvedev, navigating a slightly harder draw, and increasingly looking like a more accomplished Grand Slam performer in the process.

A statistical conundrum

Statistically, the final is a hard one to judge. My Elo ratings have about 150 points between the pair, which suggests Medvedev has around a 70% chance of winning, which translates to odds of 1.422/5, suggesting Nadal should be around 3.4012/5.

Those ratings have their limitations, though. Nadal is nearly 250 points short of his 2009 career peak, whereas Medvedev has never been higher, opening the possibility that he might yet be better still.

Given this uncertainty, I've backed Medvedev in the Match Odds market at 1.584/7, but only to trade out of my heavy pre-tournament position on Nadal and guarantee a profit.

Otherwise, the final side markets provide the most interest, largely because the pair have played so infrequently, with Nadal currently leading 3-1, meaning their is some price uncertainty that can be taken advantage of.

Number of Sets

To date, head-to-head, the pair have used a whopping 93% of the sets available to them in their four matches.

Taking out the near walkover Nadal enjoyed in their first, 2019 encounter, that figure climbs to 100%.

The sample size of previous matches is small for these players, and the picture is further complicated by the Medvedev-on-his-way-up-Nadal-on-his-way-down narrative, but nonetheless, if ever a match looked like going long, it's this one.

Backing Five Sets at 3.7011/4 is the value call.

Set Betting

With this in mind, it would seem to make sense to support Medvedev to win 3-2 at around 6.806/1. After all, on the bare ratings, the market seems to be slightly undervaluing him.

However, there's an argument that - should this match go long - the advantage will turn to Nadal. There remain questions over Medvedev's temperament in tense moments, whereas Nadal has repeatedly faced such moments, and overcome them, such as when he took the deciding set against Medvedev in the 2019 US Open final.

A slight punt, but Nadal to win 3-2 at 7.6013/2 is the call.

Total Games

Although still illiquid at the time of writing, this market looks like settling at around 39.5 games as the midpoint. Using a percentage-of-available-games measure, the pair use an average of 72% of the available games. Again, removing that first encounter from the figures sees that number shoot up to 84%. That suggests an over/under midpoint of around 54 games.

Given the paucity of data for this duo, though, the market is likely one to sit out.