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Djokovic dominance sees market price tumble
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Lehecka can take a set again
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Korda with edge over Khachanov
Market regains faith in Djokovic
I said that if Novak Djokovic could show some form of dominance in a match, his outright price would fall rapidly and this was indeed the case following his demolition of Alex De Minaur this morning. This saw Djokovic's odds to win the tournament tumble from 2.305/4 to 1.564/7, implying that he has around a 65% chance of winning the tournament with eight players remaining.
Lehecka can replicate set win over Tsitsipas
Second favourite Stefanos Tsitsipas is in action on Tuesday in the second quarter-final, against Czech surprise package Jiri Lehecka, and that is where we will start with our look at day nine's quarter finals.
Based on rankings, and what they've achieved in the sport so far, it's obvious that Tsitsipas will be a strong favourite for this match, and indeed this is the case with the market making him 1.192/11 to progress. Lehecka is currently ranked just outside the top 80, and has never broken the top 50, although is guaranteed a big rankings jump after this event regardless of the outcome here.
When ranked well outside the top 100, Lehecka took a set off Tsitsipas in their only previous meeting indoors in Rotterdam in February last year, and was a similar market price that day. Does today's price reflect the young Czech's improvement since that meeting? I'm unconvinced.
Based on general market prices, we should get around 1.804/5 on Lehecka to win a set, or on the +2.5 set market, and this is a line I'm not averse to.
Korda justified favourite over Khachanov
The market is finding it trickier to split Karen Khachanov and Sebastian Korda for their quarter-final, with Korda the marginal favourite at 1.824/5 at the time of writing following an excellent event so far including his defeat of tournament second favourite Daniil Medvedev.
Market lines were the other way around in their last meeting, indoors in Antwerp in October with Korda winning in two tight sets on his journey to the final.
The American has started 2023 in superb fashion too, losing to Djokovic in the final of Adelaide in a very close match, and having beaten two top ten players in a row here.
Khachanov has better serve numbers on hard court in the last year, with Korda having a similar advantage on return, but Korda's improvement is a little more obvious when looking at six month data, which he has a bigger edge overall and is showing an improved serve.
Ultimately, this means that I don't really have much to quibble with in terms of the match pricing, so there's no lean for this match.