Australian Open Men's Day 6 Tips: Shelton with higher ceiling than Popyrin

• Norrie and Medvedev shocked on day five

• Fatigued Murray facing tough test

• Evans with shock potential

• Shelton a potentially false underdog

Medvedev exit influences outright market

Another day, another shock. This time there were two, with Cameron Norrie throwing away a 2-1 set lead to succumb to Jiri Lehecka of the Czech Republic, and then in the night match, second favourite Daniil Medvedev was ousted in straight sets by Sebastian Korda in a match which illustrates how important it is to play the key points well. Medvedev actually won 49% of points in the match - unheard of for a 3-0 set loss - but lost two tiebreaks.

Obviously Medvedev's implied chances in the tournament needed to be redistributed among the field, and yet Novak Djokovic has hardly received much market support following a hamstring concern. The tournament favourite is now 2.47/5 for the title, with Stefanos Tsitsipas now second favourite at 8.07/1.

The draw has really opened up in quarters one and four, where some rather unheralded names have chances of a Slam semi-final, at the very least. A Djokovic loss would virtually guarantee a first-time Slam winner.

Murray surely fatigued for Bautista-Agut clash

Moving on to Saturday's action, two Brits are in action with Andy Murray somehow attempting to back up a six hour win epic against Thanasi Kokkinakis and five-hour win over Matteo Berrettini against Roberto Bautista-Agut. The Spaniard's five-set win over Brandon Holt in round two was completed in just under three hours - a mere sprint compared to Murray's marathons.

Despite Murray's obvious determination to wring every possible win out of the rest of his career, he must be absolutely exhausted following those two victories. Obviously the market is cognisant of this, making the Scotsman a heavy underdog at 3.8514/5 - rather bigger than the 2.506/4 he was against Bautista-Agut in Basel indoors at the end of October.

Evans very capable of shocking Rublev

Fellow Brit Dan Evans is also in action, and he's been quoted as saying that he really fancies his chances against Andrey Rublev tomorrow. Evans has justification in that assertion too, having won three of their last five meetings, and the two he did lose were very close losses.

I make Rublev favourite, but the 1.321/3 market price looks short - he doesn't possess hugely better numbers than Evans on hard court over the last year. Given that Evans claims to also have a workable gameplan too, keeping the man from Birmingham onside makes sense here. While the game handicap market on the Exchange is still forming, we should be able to get around the 1.855/6 - 1.910/11 mark on Evans with a 5.5 game head start, and I think this is a decent line.

Shelton can triumph over tired Popyrin

The other match I feel worth discussing is lower-profile, with wild card Alexei Popyrin facing Ben Shelton, and it's Popyrin who the market has assigned an edge towards, making him the 1.715/7 favourite.

I'm surprised by this. Firstly, Popyrin has won two long five setters in a row, and must be pretty fatigued, and there's really not a data edge on him either. Shelton is on a nice upward curve, with some excellent results including two titles in Challenger events towards the end of last season. I'm much more minded to go with the player with a higher ceiling here, with the fatigue factor for Popyrin a further boost to my rationale.