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Still question marks over Nadal
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Thiem and Murray underdogs against Rublev and Berrettini
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Isner with historical edge over Mannarino
Nadal pushed by fatigued Draper
Big names progressed with rather different journeys in Monday's first round matches. Daniil Medvedev dropped just three games en route to demolishing Marcos Giron, but Rafa Nadal needed four sets to get past Jack Draper.
By the end of set three, the players were identical on points won in the match, so it could have been worse for the Spaniard if Draper hadn't found the fourth set a huge physical test, in a brutal match lasting almost four hours.
So, hardly a positive for Nadal, but Draper should now have a very clear idea of the level of match fitness he needs to make a big dent in future Grand Slams, which his talent clearly merits.
Thiem underdog for Rublev clash
Moving into day two, which features players from the bottom half of the draw, there are several cracking matches in prospect, including Andrey Rublev versus Dominic Thiem, and Matteo Berrettini against Andy Murray.
Rublev is a solid 1.351/3 favourite over Thiem, who has required a wild card to get in to this event following a large drop in ranking after long-term injury, and it's also worth pointing out that Rublev has won their last four main tour encounters as well.
After a really difficult return to tour following that injury lay-off, Thiem started to pick up some results with several indoor semi-finals in 250 level events. However, a 6-4 6-1 loss to Soonwoo Kwon in qualifiers in Adelaide, and several exhibition defeats as well, represent a tough start to 2023 for the Austrian.
Berrettini serve likely to be too much for Murray
It's this that makes me think that the market line looks about right here, and there's a fairly similar price available on Berrettini for his meeting with Murray.
The duo met in the US Open in early September, with Berrettini priced up at a bigger 1.558/15 pre-match, but Murray has gone 3-5 in main tour events since then, with all wins coming as a favourite. Winning just 43% of points against Sebastian Korda in the Adelaide warm-up event is another negative for the Scotsman.
What would represent success for Murray here? Fierce competitor that he is, he's obviously going to be targeting the victory, but he will have to wind back the years on return if he is going to challenge a big-server, who would be ranked inside the top 10 if not for injury lay-offs. Going four or five sets might be all Murray can hope for here.
Mannarino with historical return woes against Isner
Over their careers, John Isner has had the edge over Adrian Mannarino, winning eight of their nine matches to date, and the Frenchman has barely been able to make an impact on Isner's serve, breaking the big-serving American less than 3% of the time, and winning not even a quarter of return points.
Such a display tomorrow would see Mannarino succumb again, and he's struggled to pick up wins from September last year onwards.
However, Isner has had some fitness issues, and that's a slight worry for me. I wouldn't be surprised that, with his serve, he was too solid for Mannarino here though, at 1.9420/21.
Finally, several other big names are in action with Casper Ruud potentially tested by the improving Czech, Tomas Machac, while Novak Djokovic should get past Spanish clay-courter Roberto Carballes Baena with minimum fuss - anything other than a comprehensive straight set victory would be a surprise.