Australian Open

Australian Open Day 10 Tips: How to back Novak at 5/6 v Fritz

Djokovic champ
He's back: ten time champ Novak on course to continue dominance

On day ten of the Australian Open, tennis columnist Gavin Mair is looking at a familiar match-up to once again deliver the same result.

  • Tournament favourites all expected to win

  • Ten time champ has found his groove

  • One-sided match-up


      Day ten of the Australian Open looks to remove the wheat from the chaff as the top contenders in both the mens and womens draws are heavily favoured to book their ticket to the semi-finals.

      On the women's side defending champion Aryna Sabalenka and US Open winner Coco Gauff are priced as short as can be - and with good reason - for their quarter-final meetings with Barbora Krejcikova and Marta Kostyuk respectively.

      It is not impossible for either player to find themselves in trouble, but given their week to week standards it would be the equivalent of an upset in the FA Cup. The old football cliche of we'll have to be at our best and hope the other team underperforms fits well.

      Sinner vs Djokovic... coming soon

      For the men, the scheduled final four showdown between Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic is no longer on the horizon, it is only one match away. And it looks like happening.

      Jannik Sinner has had things all his own way against Andrey Rublev in their most recent meetings, and with the Italian in fine form - he has yet to drop a set this tournament - and his opponent coming off a knackering five setter it doesn't seem likely that the Russian will turn the tide.

      It is however, the other quarter-final where my focus lies today where a very generous 5/61.84 has been priced on Novak Djokovic to triumph in straight sets against Taylor Fritz.

      One-sided affair

      World number one Djokovic leads Taylor Fritz by eight wins to love in their career head-to-head. Sets dropped by the Serbian? Zero.

      The only exception to that was when Djokovic suffered an abdominal tear at this event during their match in 2021. Djokovic had won the first two sets and was cruising before injury struck, and he looked a certainty to retire, yet Fritz still couldn't get over the line. A damning indictment of the American's prospects in this match.

      On a side note, Novak not only escaped that match but went on to lift the title. Whilst it doesn't say much for Fritz, I guess it doesn't say much about the opposition either that a clearly injury impacted Djokovic still rolled to the title.

      It is a nightmare match-up for Fritz. Djokovic knows exactly what buttons to press and when to press them. He can draw errors from the Fritz racket when he needs them.

      Djokovic didn't look in great shape at the start of the tournament, struggling past both Alexei Popyrin and Dino Prizmic. He looked physically hampered - an existing wrist injury appeared to be bothering him - whilst he also sounded to be suffering a cold or flu.

      All of that seems to be in the past as he won at a canter versus Tomas Etcheverry and almost triple bageled Adrian Mannarino. It seems unlikely that a professional winner such as Djokovic will take his foot off the gas against Fritz.

      This has been a positive tournament for the American, who has exceeded his seeding in reaching the quarter-final and it should set him up nicely for the sunshine swing of Indian Wells and Miami, where he tends to play his most confident ball.

      However, it seems unlikely that Fritz will be able to overcome Djokovic's dominant record. Back Djokovic to win 3/0 in set betting at 5/61.84.

      Djokovic to win 3/0 in set betting @ 5/61.84

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