Day two of the ATP Finals sees Group Tokyo 1970 get started and returning to discuss the Betfair odds for today's two matches is Dan Weston...
"Based on their two-year indoor data, this price looks reasonably justified with Djokovic - again unsurprisingly - having a huge 7% edge on service points won, with both players having similar return data."
Wins for Thiem and Nadal on opening day
There were wins for Dominic Thiem over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafa Nadal over Andrey Rublev on the opening day of the ATP Finals on Sunday, with Thiem edging Tsitsipas in a tight three-setter in which he won five more points in the entire match, and Nadal getting the better of Rublev via a break in each set, and not facing a single break point on his serve.
Djokovic a heavy favourite to defeat Schwartzman
Moving on to today's action in the Group Tokyo 1970, world number one Novak Djokovic starts his tournament with a clash against the tournament outsider, Diego Schwartzman, and unsurprisingly, it is Djokovic who is the heavy favourite to open his account with a win at 1.132/15.
Based on their two-year indoor data, this price looks reasonably justified with Djokovic - again unsurprisingly - having a huge 7% edge on service points won, with both players having similar return data.
Djokovic has also won all five of their previous meetings including three on Schwartzman's favoured clay. It's 3-0 to the Serb in the last two years. In these matches, Schwartzman has struggled on serve against Djokovic, winning around 57% of service points and holding 66% of the time, and should he replicate this today, would have very little chance of winning. In reality, it would need Schwartzman to play his best and Djokovic to have an off-day in order for there to be an upset, and this assertion is accurately reflected by the current market odds.
Medvedev with slight edge over Zverev for night match
The night match should be a lot more competitive, and it's a repeat of the recent Paris Masters final between Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev. The Russian, Medvedev, is the market favourite here at 1.794/5 and he triumphed in that match just over a week ago, 5-7 6-4 6-1, and is 2-1 up in their matches when both players were ranked inside the top 10.
Stats-wise, I think Medvedev should be favourite here. His all-surface numbers since the tour resumed are stronger (111% combined service/return points won percentage compared to 108%) and so are his two-year indoor numbers as well, where he again has around a 3% edge.
Considering this, I make the market about right again here. As I've stated numerous times before, we are unlikely to get big edges featuring high-profile matches between top 10 players who have very exposed form lines - simply put, the market understands the player levels very well.
For those who think the market has it right, a Djokovic/Medvedev double can be backed on the Betfair Sportsbook at 1.9210/11.
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