See the latest Betfair Exchange odds in our graphic
Why are Labour favourites to win next general election?
Labour are 2.486/4 favourites to win the next general election as Andy Burnham completes his first fortnight as prime minister.
Busy Burnham makes bold start as PM
Burnham has made a confident start in 10 Downing Street, announcing policies on transport, housing, social care, pubs and plans to devolve power to English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
These moves should prove popular, although the Tories and Reform UK are already warning he will fund them with tax rises, and Burnham's commitment to getting things done has impressed many.
One of the consistent criticisms of Keir Starmer's goverment was that it talked about change without delivering it. Burnham's first fortnight indicates that he is determined to not make the same mistake.
Burnham bounce coincides with Reform struggles
At the same time as Labour have enjoyed their Burnham bounce, Reform UK's momentum has continued to stall.
Nigel Farage will stand in the Clacton by-election on 13 August. It was called after Farage resigned as the constituency's MP, asking voters there to put their trust in him as he faces investigations and accusations about his finances which the Reform leader denies.
Farage is 1.051/20 to win in Clacton this month but, with none of the major parties fielding candidates, it could be something of a hollow victory and the latest publicity stunt from a man who is fast losing favour with the public.
Reform UK's problems have been reflected in the Betfair Exchange markets on the next general election.
In May, after making gains at local elections, Reform were 2.1211/10 to win the most seats at the next general election. They are now out to 4.03/1 on the Betfair Exchange - by no means dead and buried but with work to do to rebuild momentum and win the trust of voters.
The Conservatives, who took a pasting at the 2024 general election and are trying to rebuild under Kemi Badenoch's leadership, are 4.3100/30 to win the most seats next time Britons go to the polls.
No Overall Majority still firm favourite at next general election
For all that punters are backing Labour to win the most seats at the next general election, a hung parliament remains the most likely outcome, according to the Betfair Exchange.
No Overall Majorty, which would mean no party winning the 326 seats required for a majority in parliament, is 1.684/6 on the Betfair Exchange.
A Labour majority is 5.39/2 - a price which may tempt some who are swept up in the enthusiasm for Burnham - while the Conservatives are the next shortest price in the market at 8.615/2 and Reform are 12.011/1.
Will Burnham call early general election?
The over all majority odds help to explain why the next election is 1.910/11 to be held in 2029 - the year when, under the UK's ever five years rule, it is scheduled to take place.
Burnham has the option of calling an early general election - as Theresa May and Boris Johnson both did when they became PM midterm - but he may first want to estalish himself and make sure voters see the changes brought about by his premiership.
On the other hand, he was a member of the Labour government under Gordon Brown and will remember that Brown famously decided not to call an early election after taking over as PM in 2007 when he was riding high in the polls. Brown waited for 2010 and lost. Labour then spent 14 years out of government.
If you think Burnham will go to the country earlier than expected, you can back a general election this year at 18.535/2, 2027 at 4.131/10 and 2028 at 4.216/5.