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Can Labour win Gorton and Denton without Burnham?
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Reform are favourites but Greens not far behind in betting
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Get the latest odds on the by-election in Manchester constituency
We don't yet have a date for the by-election in Gorton and Denton but it is already shaping up to be a significant political betting event on the Betfair Exchange as well as a test of the government's popularity.
Speculation is already rife that Labour could be defeated in the seat they won at the general in 2024 by over 13,000 votes from second-placed Reform UK. Punters are getting involved in the market that was launched after the by-election was confirmed at the weekend.
This time Labour will face challenges from both right and left of the political spectrum. Since the market opened, favouritism has swung between Reform and the Green Party, both of whom are hoping to pick up constituents who are disgruntled with the direction of Labour under Starmer for different reasons.
At the time of writing on Monday morning, Reform 2.6213/8 are the favourites with punters on the Betfair Exchange, with Green 2.89/5 and Labour 3.711/4.
Here's some background on why the by-election is happening, what's at stake for three parties in the running to win and why Labour's decision to block Manchester mayor Andy Burnham from standing as their candidate was controversial.
Why is there a by-election in Gorton and Denton?
The by-election, which is likely to take place in February or March, was triggered when the MP Andrew Gwynne decided to step down.
At the last general election, in July 2024, Gwynne won the seat for Labour, although he had been sitting as an independent since losing the Labour whip last year.
Why did Labour stop Andy Burnham standing?
Good question. Starmer and his allies claimed the Labour Party National Excutive Committee voted to stop Burnham from being their candidate because he needs to complete his current term as Mayor of Manchester. Burnham was re-elected as mayor of the north west city for a third term in 2024, so has over two years remaining.
The Labour leadership argued that a mayoral election for his successor now would be costly and that resources were better spent on fighting this May's local elections which are, like the upcoming by-election, seen as a big test of the party and Starmer's popularity as PM. Reform are 1.241/4 to win the most councils at the local election on 7 May.
Burnham wanted to be Labour's candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election. He regarded the by-election as an opportunity for him to return to Westminster as an MP. Burnham is a leading candidate to succeed Starmer as Labour's next leader, but he must become an MP first. This obstacle is one of the reasons why he is currently 9.617/2 with Betfair Exchange customers to be next Labour leader, behind Angela Rayner 5.59/2 and the favourite Wes Streeting 4.3100/30.
Burnham's supporters believe Starmer's allies on the NEC voted to keep the Manchester mayor off the by-election ballot to prevent him from mounting a leadership challenge.
Will Reform or Green win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
If Reform UK win the Gorton and Denton by-election, it could be a significant step on the path to challenging to win the most seats at the next general election.
Reform are 2.1211/10 to be the largest party in the House of Commons after the next general election. They are 4.131/10 to win a majority - no over all majority is the favourite 1.824/5 - and their leader Nigel Farage is 8.27/1 to be the next prime minister, although that price would be smaller if it were not for the possibility that Labour could change leader before the next general election.
As mentioned, Reform came second in Gorton and Denton in 2024 but they were a distant second and this time they will fancy their chances of getting close to taking the seat. They have a mixed record at by-elections, however, taking Runcorn and Helsby from Labour in 2025 but losing to Plaid Cymru, against the odds, in Caerphilly, south Wales.
As for the Greens, this will be an interesting measure of their progress under new leader Zack Polanski. Membership of the party has reportedly surged since he took over last year. There was speculation that Polanski could stand in Gorton and Denton but he has ruled himself out, saying he would leave it to the constituency party to choose their candidate.