The Green Party are threatening to overtake the Liberal Democrats, their membership is increasing and people on the left are tempted to vote for them in the increasingly hard to call general election. And yet this week the broadcasting regulator Ofcom decided that Green leader Natalie Bennett needn't be included in televised debates in the run up to the May vote. The Greens are outraged and David Cameron is threatening to boycott the debates if they aren't included alongside the Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and Ukip.
The last year was a good one for the Greens, as they finished ahead of the Lib Dems in the European elections and doubled their membership to almost 28,000. They're not the only growing party, with Ukip membership currently at a high of around 40,000 and the SNP tripling their numbers to around 76,000 since losing the Scottish Independence referendum in September. The Lib Dems, meanwhile, have lost around 20,000 members since 2010.
While we've heard plenty about the rise of Ukip and the SNP, the Greens have quietly made their inroads. With increased members, they can target more seats than they did in 2010 and Bennett says the party will field candidates in 75 percent of constituencies, a notable increase on the last election when they stood in only half. However, 2010 was significant as it saw the election of the Greens' first MP, Caroline Lucas in Brighton.
Last January, the Greens were polling at around two to three percent but they're now regularly hitting the seven to eight mark in YouGov polls. The "Green surge" is attributed to frustrations with the three main parties, the same reason cited for the rise of Ukip and the SNP. However, unlike Ukip, support for the Greens comes primarily from younger voters, under 40s who, unconvinced by Miliband's Labour and dismayed by the coalition, are desperate for a progressive alternative. This section of society also tends to be more clued-up about climate change.
Another factor in the Greens increasing popularity is the way they have expanded the focus of their policies. They've made the type of announcements on housing, welfare and taxation that left-wing voters have long-argued for Miliband to advocate. Refugees from the Labour ranks, who have previously dismissed the Greens as a single issue party, could be attracted by the argument put forward by Bennett that environmental and social justice are synonymous. Whether these same people will be prepared to support the Greens, knowing it could cost Labour's chances of removing the Tories, when the pressure is on in May remains to be seen.
The Greens have identified 12 constituencies where they believe they could win, mainly in the South and South West of England (although their popularity is increasing elsewhere). If they can follow the SNP's example and get young voters to the ballot box, the Greens might well increase their number of MPs. The 5.04/1 available on them doing that is generous and, if they're successful, they might even be included in a rainbow coalition. Any Other Government/Coalition 5.79/2 is worth considering, although I still suspect either Labour or the Conservatives will attempt to form a minority government.
Why is Cameron threatening to boycott the debates? Because he's passionately concerned about both the environment and the Greens' democratic right to participate? No, because he believes he's got more to lose than gain by taking part and thinks Bennett's input would damage Labour the way that Farage's participation will cost the Tories. Cameron's performance was underwhelming in the 2010 debates and Miliband views them as a prime opportunity to attack his record.
Given a fair hearing, Miliband can be an effective communicator but he also possesses a considerable capacity to mess up. Farage, meanwhile, was perceived to have defeated Nick Clegg in debate last spring but, up against populist flim flam and a hostile media, the Deputy PM was facing a thankless task. Anybody who wants to be PM for the next five years should be able swat aside Ukip's premier snake oil salesman.
The Conservatives should also be careful not to overestimate the importance of the debates. Clegg triumphed in two of three in 2010, "I agree with Nick" became the campaign mantra, but the Lib Dems won fewer seats at the election than they did in 2005. Bettors would be wise to bear that in mind.
Recommended Bet
Back the Green Party to win over 1.5 seat @ 5.04/1