A consistent theme of this column over the past year has involved tipping UKIP to maintain their remarkable progress and shake the foundation of Britain's two-party system, whether it be for May's Euro elections, several by-elections or longer term goals. Public opinion and voting intention always inevitably fluctuate throughout the course of a parliament, though, as fortunes and priorities change. So whereas 2014 was the year to make money from betting on the insurgents, the start of 2015 is the opportune moment to bet against them and cash out any live positions.
This is not to say UKIP's support will collapse. Despite barely a day going by without some negative UKIP story, usually reinforcing a racist, sexist, homophobic caricature, their support has remained solid in the mid-teens. Even accounting for some voters drifting back to the main parties at the General Election, I doubt they'll get less than 10%. Their problem is the same faced by all smaller parties under our First Past The Post voting system. Converting a small percentage into seats.
Currently, UKIP are rated 2.0521/20 to win over five seats, down from 2.8815/8 available before Douglas Carswell became their first MP in October. He's strongly expected to retain Clacton, but fellow Tory defector Mark Reckless will face a very tough task defending a much smaller majority in their second, Rochester and Strood, seat. Even if he does, it's hard to see where another four will come from.
Leader Nigel Farage is the most obvious pick, but constituency polls in South Thanet have not been so favourable. Boston and Skegness looks their best chance, but while there are another half dozen or so realistic targets, rival parties must start favourites for those seats.
In such circumstances, they need to be gaining momentum, which seems impossible over the next few months. The main parties will doubtless try and squeeze them out of the debate, beyond ridiculing their policies and declaring UKIP a wasted vote.
Worse, their relentless focus on immigration is making the brand toxic, hardening opposition which will in almost all cases, outnumber them. The Rochester campaign produced the bizarre phenomenon of Labour voters tactically supporting the Tories to keep UKIP out. Expect similar tactics in Farage's contest and elsewhere, making it very hard to finish first in anywhere other than a tight three-runner race.
While Westminster agonised over UKIP, as the year came to a close it became clear that the SNP surge has even greater implications. As pointed out last week, a dramatic increase in their seat tally is expected, with the probable outcome being a minority government and possibly another election. The open question is just how big will those advances be?
From a current tally of just six, it was recently estimated that they could win 45, with Labour slipping from 41 to just ten! While that would comfortably outstrip Betfair's Over 35.5 seats line, extreme caution is urged before taking around 2.01/1 on them doing so. Even if their current dominance doesn't recede, the scale of their task in most of these 'target' seats is enormous.
There will doubtless be some gains from the hapless Lib Dems, and it will be hard for Labour to avoid fewer than ten losses. However beyond that, these projected gains involve overturning 20%, sometimes 30% plus deficits. Given the scale of those individual tasks, they are by no means certain to land the 1.341/3 about being the largest party in Scotland, which would require around 14 gains from Labour.
Again without underestimating their progress, this is a matter of timing. The SNP are at their peak while Labour have already hit rock-bottom. Expect Labour to at least close the gap in the months ahead.
SNP support has never reliably turned out for General Elections, where again their presence is a distraction from the main question. Will so many lifelong Labour voters in Scotland really defect if the likely result were another Tory government? The main parties may be bruised, crisis-ridden and in decline, but the dated voting system still ensures that most will regard them as the only realistic choices.
Recommended Bets
Back UKIP to win 5 seats or under @ 1.9520/21
Back SNP to win under 35.5 seats @ 1.9520/21
Lay SNP to win the most seats in Scotland @ 1.42/5