The big UK political story of 2014 was the decline of the main parties, with UKIP and the SNP sustaining their rapid rise to challenge the old Labour/Conservative duopoly. As a result, we are looking at the closest and most unpredictable General Election in living memory, along with easily the most exciting in betting terms.
As we enter the New Year, the big two remain hard to split in terms of winning the Most Seats, with Labour 1.9310/11 compared to the Conservatives at 2.0811/10. Punters are much more confident about predicting that neither will win the 325 seats required to gain an Overall Majority, with another hung parliament now a mere 1.454/9 chance.
As that stalemate becomes apparent, the market that may prove most exciting is the one concerned with which combination of parties make up the Next Government and at this stage, it presents the best betting opportunity. On the night and days after, expect confusion, rumour and speculation as deals are sought.
However while there may be several plausible scenarios in mathematical terms, once all the partisan calculations are considered, a minority government of the party with the most seats may be in everyone's short-term interest.
Of the eight options in this market, five involve the political world which we're used to - either a majority or a coalition involving Lib Dems. However the first option looks increasingly unlikely, while the latter look set to lose half their seats, maybe more. With less than 30 seats, their bargaining power will be miniscule,
Instead, the SNP look set to hold the balance of power, with the latest Scottish polls projecting they could get more than 40 seats. Any coalition involving them, or UKIP for that matter, would make 'Any Other Government/Coalition' the winner, currently a 5.14/1 chance.
However it is extremely doubtful that Alex Salmond's party will want to govern beyond Scotland and they will likelier push for a scenario where they prop up a minority Labour government in exchange for concessions. Salmond has already stated they won't prop up a Tory one, as have the Greens, for what their maximum couple of seats are worth.
The other big player, UKIP, are hardly coalition material. Their USP is a protest to the Westminster elite, which would be destroyed in an instant by joining a government. Expect them to win between five and ten seats and make much noise in opposition.
My estimate is that 290 seats will be enough for either Labour or the Tories to win the most seats and earn the right to form a government. Then they will have to evaluate their best deal and it's hard to see how any of the full coalition options will be.
Far better to attempt a minority government, with a view to calling a second election a few months later if necessary, as we saw in 1974. Given that the losing party will be in turmoil, likely ditch their leader and spark a leadership contest, that arrangement suits them well too.
Whatever the ultimate decision, if as expected there is a no overall majority, a minority government will be a very serious option on the night.
Currently, a Conservative Minority is rated at 6.86/1, Labour Minority 8.07/1, which equates to around 3.7511/4 combined. This is a huge trading angle. Once we know which party has won the most seats, the relevant minority option will be certainly no less than a 50/50 chance. Back them both now!
Recommended bets
Back Conservative Minority for Next Government @ 6.86/1
Back Labour Minority for Next Government @ 8.07/1