Such are the ups and downs of an electoral cycle, the betting for Most Seats at the Next General Election is a market that invariably swings both ways. The current parliament has been no exception. The day after Ed Miliband won the Labour leadership contest, I strongly urged punters to take 2.35/4 about them winning the next election, and pressed up two years ago at 1.834/5. Today, I'm strongly urging those who took the advice to lay back and take the profit while you still can.
Whereas a week ago, we were trying to weigh the incalculable effects of a Yes vote in Scotland, the picture is now much clearer. Both the short and long-term implications are terrible for Labour and this week's lacklustre party conference has failed to either address those concerns, inspire the ground troops or turn around the wider negative perceptions about Ed Miliband and his team. They can still win the next election, but do not look anything like favourites.
The national opinion polls remain fairly positive, with the latest surveys recording a Labour lead between two and six points. However, polls generally swing towards the government in the final few months before an election and, as the Conservatives gather in Birmingham for their conference, they will be confident that they have the right messages to turn things around.
The most significant development is David Cameron's sudden support for 'English votes for English laws', in response to enhanced devolution for Scotland. This issue is extremely complex and, when it is eventually resolved long after the next election, the solution may not be so straightforward. However as a short-term election message, it is toxic for Labour, who daren't support it because it would cost them 40-odd seats and realistic hopes of a majority in England.
Constitutional issues rarely play a key role in elections, but we can be sure the Tories will make this one centre-stage. Along with their support for a referendum on EU membership, they have two overwhelmingly popular messages that Labour will never match. Add in a growing lead on economic management, Miliband's dire personal ratings plus a largely compliant media and it is easy to see them gaining enough momentum to at least edge a tight contest.
The party conference gave Labour a rare chance to hit back, deliver their own powerful messages and get some good coverage, but it has not gone well. Both Ed Balls' and Miliband's speeches failed to inspire the crowd and immediately came in for flak from the media.
The headline policies, raising the minimum wage and more cash for the NHS, came across as worthy but piecemeal, certainly not the big bold offer one expects from oppositions. Nor was it the passionate condemnation and rejection of Tory cuts that millions yearn for. Confronted by such a lack of ambition, expect George Osborne to produce some Tory policies to match and steal their thunder. This is how governments recover.
There is plenty to say Labour can still win. Voting intention has re-aligned since the Lib Dems abandoned half their supporters by joining their Tory arch-enemies in coalition. Their brand is much less toxic than the Tories, who haven't earned 37% in a General Election since 1992. Constituency boundaries favour Labour, whose support is widely spread, over the Tories, whose vote is condensed in their largely Southern, suburban and rural heartlands. The rise of UKIP hurts the Tories more, and could feasibly split the party.
All of those reasons are why Labour remains favourite, and have led the polls for years. If they can score in excess of 35% just four years after being a deeply unpopular government, despite a lack of economic credibility and an unpopular leader, one might conclude the only way is up. There is scant evidence of a bounce any time soon, though, and until we see some 1.758/11 is way too short. So for that matter is 2.8615/8 about a Labour majority. Lets lay now and reconsider as the election campaign develops.