NFL Week One Game Picks & Tips: Lions to roar over Rams

• Chiefs kick-off campaign against the Ravens

• NFL heads to Brazil for the first time

• Back Browns to sink Cowboys on Sunday

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The NFL is coming out swinging for the new season with a fantastic slate of Week One games to really get us up and running for the new campaign.

Can the Chiefs make it three in a row? Can Aaron Rodgers inspire the Jets? Will Caleb Williams live up to the hype? None of these questions will be answered in Week One, which is traditionally a big fat liar of a week, but we can't wait for it nonetheless.

So lets saddle up for what should be a thrilling ride in the 2024 NFL season...

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NFL... Only Bettor. Listen to our Week 1 Preview now.

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NFL Week One

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Match Odds: 7/42.75 | 4/91.44
Handicap: Lions -4.5
Total Points: 52.5

Two explosive offences should pile up plenty of points in this play-off rematch, but I wonder if there'll be enough to cover the lofty total. We'll see plenty of Matthew Stafford to Puka Nacua and Jared Goff to Amon-Ra St Brown, but the run game will have a big say.

Jahmyr Gibbs is a dog of a RB and Kyren Williams ended last season with seven straight 100-yard games so expect production from them. Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is the man to back for the TD though and we'll double it up with a home win, as I think Detroit can just conjure up enough defence to pinch it.

Pick: Lions

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Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 3/4
Handicap: Browns -2.5
Total Points: 40.5

I think the Cowboys could be in trouble here if they're not on it, as Cleveland's defence is no joke and they'll come out to play from the off - with just something from Deshaun Watson needed to keep them ticking over.

The off season was a disaster for Dallas, CeeDee Lamb finally got his new contract but Dak Prescott is still waiting - if there's any doubt, distraction or lack of continuity then this Browns defence will take full advantage.

Pick: Browns

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Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills

Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 4/111.36
Handicap: Bills -6.5
Total Points: 47.5

I've got Arizona pegged for a big improvement this season with Marvin Harrison joining Kyler Murray, but it's running back James Conner who should be your first pick to find the end zone. The Cards have offensive talent but not so much on defence, and despite losing half his two best receivers, Josh Allen is still Josh Allen.

Pick: Bills

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Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears

Match Odds: 8/52.60 | 8/151.53
Handicap: Bears -3.5
Total Points: 44.5

David Carr was the last QB drafted No.1 overall to win his first game in the NFL way back in 2002, with the following 15 having a 0-14-1 record. Caleb Williams can buck that trend though as long as he's disciplined enough not to hold onto the ball for too long - as Chicago have compiled quite the offensive line-up for him to showcase his skills.

Pick: Bears

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New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Match Odds: 14/53.80 | 2/71.29
Handicap: Bengals -7.5
Total Points: 40.5

Tee Higgins is doubtful and Ja'Marr Chase will be limited even if he plays - but Joe Burrow is playing, and he's playing at home, against the Patriots - who I've got marked down as one of the worst teams in the league this year.

Pick: Bengals

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Houston Texans @ Indianpolis Colts

Match Odds: 4/61.67 | 5/42.25
Handicap: Texans -2.5
Total Points: 48.5

Anthony Richardson will be the first Colts QB to start back-to-back season openers since Andrew Luck, but Indy have the worst opening-day record in the league as they're without first-game victory in decade. CJ Stroud rolling into town doesn't give much belief that they'll end that run here.

Pick: Texans

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins

Match Odds: 29/202.45 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Dolphins -3.5
Total Points: 49.5

Trevor Lawrence needs to earn that contract but even if he shows up big in Miami the Fins have enough weapons to win this Florida derby.

Pick: Dolphins

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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints

Match Odds: 17/102.70 | 1/21.50
Handicap: Saints -3.5
Total Points: 41.5

The Superdome will host the Super Bowl in February but neither of these sides will be there as there's not too much hope for either for this season. The Saints can at least start with a win though.

Pick: Saints

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Match Odds: 29/202.45 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Falcons -3.5
Total Points: 42.5

It could be Justin Fields if banged-up Russell Wilson can't go, but it's all about the Steelers defence (and Mike Tomlin's coaching genius) that will define Pittsburgh's season as well as this game. Atlanta's flashy and headline-grabbing offseason obviously brought Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr in as QBs, but their defence also improved and this could be something of an ugly arm wrestle.It's a coin toss for me, especially in week one, but I'll back Cousins to just generate enough for a home win.

Pick: Falcons

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Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Match Odds: 29/202.45 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Bucs -3.5
Total Points: 42.5

Washington start the season with a new QB for the eight year running, but they could have their man in Jayden Daniels, who will be very good this year. This is a tough trip for a re-built Commanders squad though as the Bucs had an impressive play-off run last year and return most of their key players - including Baker Mayfield after his career year.

The Bucs did give up the second-most big pass plays (20+ yards) and QB rushing touchdowns, both skills that fall in Daniels' wheelhouse, so he could show some flashes of what's to come.

Pick: Bucs

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Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Match Odds: 2/20 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Chargers -3
Total Points: 39.5

Gardner Minshew slinging balls to Davante Adams could result in plenty of highlight reel plays for the Raiders, but Jim Harbaugh is a serious dude and he'll have a gameplan to win his first NFL game since 2014.

Pick: Chargers

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Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks

Match Odds: 21/10 | 2/51.40
Handicap: Seahawks -5.5
Total Points: 41.5

Bo Nix will be the first rookie QB to start the season for Denver since John Elway in 1983, and he's impressed his team enough to be the first rookie captain the team's had since 1967. Nix has the tools to be a NFL starter, but this building on opening day is as tough a place to kick-off a career as any.

New head coach Mike Macdonald will implement the defensive scheme he used at Baltimore - and we know how their defence turned out. Denver have lost four of the last five season openers by a score, this one could be by a bit more.

Pick: Seahawks

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Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants

Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/102.11
Handicap: Vikings -1.5
Total Points: 41.5

Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones isn't exactly a five-star match-up, it's about who can make the fewest mistakes in the Big Apple. Minnesota aren't expected to do much this season, so the fact they're favourites tells you all you need to know about the G-Men.

Darnold is poor but supporting cast Justin Jefferson and in particular Aaron Jones here can see them home - expect plenty of touches for the former Packers running back.

Pick: Vikings

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Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (01:20 BST Friday)

Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 4/61.67
Handicap: Chiefs -3
Total Points: 46.5

The NFL aren't messing about with the season kick-off, sending MVP Lamar Jackson to Arrowhead for an instant shot at revenge after a chastening AFC Championship loss at home in January.

Patrick Mahomes and squad lost the season opener to Detroit last year and you wouldn't be shocked if a fired-up Ravens outfit came in and got the 'W' - especially if they make full use of new signing Derrick Henry.

Inexplicably, the best rushing team in the league last year ran the ball just six times with their running backs in the AFC title game against the Chiefs and let Jackson make 37 throws - that was criminal play calling but they'll run the rock this time with Henry, who after all still came second in rushing yards in the NFL despite playing for a lowly Titans team that opposition defences just stacked the box on.

Henry also just so happens to average more yards per game against the Chiefs (112!) than anyone else in the league and has scored eight TDs in six games, so we'll back a player prop double on 80+ yards and a score which seems perfectly reasonable.

I'm much happy backing Henry's player prop than the result. The best gameplan against Mahomes is to keep him off the field, and the Ravens have the tools to do it, but their new offensive line is a slight worry so if pushed I'd back the champs straight up.

Pick: Chiefs

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Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (01:20 BST Saturday)

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 8/111.73
Handicap: Eagles -2.5
Total Points: 48.5

The NFL bounces into Brazil for the first time with a big-name match-up between sides poles apart at the end of last season as Green Bay finshed like a train while the wheels fell off the Eagles - going 1-5 before a play-off humiliation against the Bucs.

Jordan Love and his exciting young receivers will burn the second-worst secondary in the league last season if their rookie corners can't significantly improve that unit - but the Eagles adding Saquon Barkley to a star-studded offensive mix means they should be an elite points-scoring crew this season.

Making such a unique trip to Sao Paulo for the first game of the season adds an unwanted layer of mystery to just how this one will go, but I'm going with the Packers team that finished strong to carry that momentum into this season.

Love has a new contract and plenty of continuity with his young receivers and Josh Jacobs looks a smart addition, while Jalen Hurts has a new OC, no pre-season and no real home advantage for this one - Philly may well be the better side over the season but the Pack can catch them cold down in Brazil.

Pick: Packers

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Now read Paul's Super Bowl preview & predictions

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