NFL Week 12 tips: Chiefs to savage slumping Rams

• Take the Chiefs to score plenty aginst poor Rams

• Packers can keep it close in Philly

• Surging Niners too good for Saints

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Los Angeles Rams (3-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)

Match Odds: 15/2 | 1/4
Spread: Chiefs -15.5
O/U: 42.5

The reigning Super Bowl champions being this big an underdog just shows you how broken the Rams are - and that would be even if Matthew Stafford was starting this game andy not Bryce Perkins.

LA's problems seem to run much deeper than that, and they could get a really brutal beatdown by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce here if they're not careful.

The Rams won the last meeting 54-51 four years ago in one of the greatest regular season games on record - but this one could live long in the memory for all the wrong reasons.

Green Bay Packers (3-7) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Match Odds: 5/2 | 3/10
Spread: Eagles -6.5
O/U: 46.5

The Eagles own the best record in football but they've looked average to even bad in a loss to Washington and tight one-point win against the Colts - where Jalen Hurts needed a late rushing TD to save their bacon.

They should still have enough against an ailing Packers side with Aaron Rodgers playing with a broken thumb, but Green Bay's season is on the line and funny things can happen with desperate teams.

I'm not saying they can win, but they should keep this close in a relatively low-socring game.

New Orleans Saints (4-7) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

Match Odds: 3/1 | 1/4
Spread: 49ers -8.5
O/U: 42.5

I backed San Francisco to have a strong second half of the season and the way they've stomped on the Rams, Chargers and Cardinals it looks like they will - they've got a scary defence Jimmy G making plays an no mistakes and genuine x-factors in Deebo Samuel being joined by Christian McCaffrey.

The Saints got a welcome win over the Rams last week, but so does everyone these days and with injuries and on the road they just won't have enough to prevent this Niner jaggernaut from rolling on.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

Match Odds: 17/10 | 1/2
Spread: Seahawks -3.5
O/U: 47.5

The Seahawks have done well to go 6-4 and tie the top of the NFC West despite a tough away schedule including a trip to Germany - now they play five of their last seven at home.

The Raiders grabbed a welcome win in overtime last week but have lost five road games this season - four of them by just one score so this one should be close again.

But give me a well-rested Seahawks squad after a bye, at home, against a three-win Las Vegas side anytime, especially one making a habit of losing close game.

Houston Texans (1-8-1) @ Miami Dolphins (7-3)

Match Odds: 11/2 | 1/9
Spread: Dolphins -14
O/U: 46.5

Not many teams can live with what the Dolphins are dishing out these days, and Houston's one-win squad certainly isn't one of them. There have been a lot of shocks this season but there's just no reason to think this could be one of them.

That's why Miami are 14-point favourites but thinks like garbage time and easing down to victory can often wide out the points spread, so instead we'll plump for another stellar outing from the surprisingly excellent Tua Tagovailoa.

Sunday schedule, odds, points spreads and totals...

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

Match Odds: 4/7 | 7/5
Spread: Bucs -3.5
O/U: 42.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Match Odds: 13/20 | 5/4
Spread: Bengals -2.5
O/U: 43.5

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets

Match Odds: 9/5 | 4/9
Spread: Jets -6
O/U: 38.5

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Match Odds: 8/5 | 1/2
Spread: Commanders -4
O/U: 40.5

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/10
Spread: Broncos -2.5
O/U: 36.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Match Odds: 1/2 | 13/8
Spread: Ravens -4
O/U: 43.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Match Odds: 8/15 | 6/4
Spread: Chargers -3
O/U: 48.5

Thanksgiving Thursday games..

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Buffalo Bills (7-3) @ Detroit Lions (4-6)

Match Odds: 1/4 | 16/5
Spread: Bills -9.5
O/U: 54.5

Traditional Thanksgiving Day hosts Detroit actually come into this game with the better form having won three straight for the first time in five years - and it's just the second time they head into a 'Turkey Day' outing on such a run.

They've been hosting a holiday fixture since 1934 and are big underdogs as they look to avoid a record sixth defeat in a row on this special occasion, but they do have a glimmer of hope.

The Lions still officially have the worst defence in the league but they've been much better in the last five days, and even managed to bottle up Saquon Barkley and they'll need more of that with Buffalo's Devin Singletary starting to heat up.

The Bills played in Detroit on Sunday when their game over Cleveland was moved due to a huge snowstorm in Buffalo, and they'll also need to be strong in the ground game with Lions running back Jamaal Williams running all over the Giants last week with three TDs.

Detroit's running backs have a league-best 18 TDs this season and riding Williams and keeping Josh Allen off the field as much as possible is the clear tactic for them - so I'd back him to score and back the Lions to keep it a bit closer than people think.

New York Giants (7-3) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Match Odds: 7/2 | 2/9
Spread: Cowboys -10
O/U: 45.5

These two NFC East rivals are both 7-3 but look to be heading in opposite directions with Dallas ripping the 8-1 Vikings on Sunday while the Giants surrended the most points and had the most turnovers in a home rinsing by Detroit.

Dallas were dominant against Minnesota, and sacked Giants QB Daniel Jones five times in their first meeting this season - and with offensive line injuries for Big Blue that's going to be a big worry.

Jones will be harassed all night by this Cowboys defence, and if they can't get Saquon Barkley moving then Big Blue will be in big trouble as Dak Prescott and RB duo Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will put up points.

Throw in a banged-up Giants secondary trying to stop CeeDee Lamb and the talent gap just looks too much to bridge here

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New England Patriots (6-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

Match Odds: 11/10 | 3/4
Spread: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 42.5

Bill Belichick once drafted Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell as a back-up to Tom Brady, not he's looking to take advantage of a big stumble against Dallas last week by handing Minnesota a second straight home loss.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins was run out of his own building by Dallas' defence, and Belichick will bring a similar heat to confuse and bemuse Cousins - although the Pats don't have anywhere near the firepower the Cowboys have.

New England edged a 10-3 streetfight against the Jets only with a last-second punt return TD, and before Sunday Minnesota had won eight straight one-score games.

You have to respect the hosts with skill players like Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, but you don't give Belichick such an obvious weakness to exploit and expect him not to take full advantage. I love the Patriots as underdogs here.