NFL Black Friday Tips: Dolphins to dominate in NYC

• Dolphins face Jets in first ever Black Friday game

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It's Thanksgiving already! Time seems to have flown by and now we get America's favourite holiday - a Thanksgiving Day triple header of NFL action.

And what's more, we've got a boonus Black Friday encounter as well just in case you've not had your fill of pigskin action.

We've got the traditional trips to Detroit and Dallas on Thursday, followed by a traditionally bruising encounter between divisional rivals San Francisco and Seattle.

It should be a feast of football!

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Black Friday Game

Miami Dolphins (7-3) @ New York Jets (4-6)

Match Odds: 2/91.22 | 7/24.50
Points Spread: Dolphins -9.5
Totals Over/Under: 41

Robert Saleh has finally cracked and Tim Boyle will replace Zach Wilson at QB, but nobody's expecting much difference with Miami big favourites in the first ever Black Friday NFL game.

Miami's high-powered offence has just cooled off the last couple of games and in the Jets they face an elite defence that will cause them all kinds of problems.

And the Dolphins are 2-3 on the road, and average 22.2 points a game away compared to 38.8 at home, so they're certainly no shoo-ins to cover the spread.

Just nine touchdowns in 10 games for the Jets offence shows their problems that Boyle, in his fourth career start, seems unlikely to solve against better than average and improving Miami D.

But there's enough juice in the Miami attack and in Boyle's stronger arm to think that even if it takes a garbage time big play or two that we can get the overs in a road win.

For all Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill's explosive pass attack, Miami needs to get their run game going against the Jets' 30th-ranked rush defence to break this game.

So step forward Raheem Mostert, who has 11 TD runs this season, scoring in seven of 10 games and going over 70 yards five time - with an increased workload here due to injuries he should see plenty enough of the ball to convert.

NFL Thanksgiving games schedule

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Green Bay Packers (4-6) @ Detroit Lions (8-2)

Match Odds: 27/103.70 | 3/101.30
Points Spread: Lions -7.5
Total Over/Under: 46.5

The Lions kicked-off the tradition of Thanksgiving football back in 1934 and they get us started in their usual early spot by hosting the Packers as rare big favourites to beat their divisional rivals.

Detroit hasn't celebrated a Thanksgivng win since 2016, but they've not had a team this good during that spell - and they've won four on the spin against Green Bay.

Jared Goff had a stinker for most of Sunday, but rallied from three picks to drag Detroit back from a 12-point deficit to beat Chicago - and he's 5-1 against the Packers.

Jordan Love looked sharp in Green Bay's win over the Chargers, and he'll need to be again to keep up with a Lions offence that will score points. With Aaron Jones down look for receiver Jayden Reed to get work on the ground as well.

Overall though, Detroit are better in all phases, they're great at home and have touchdown threats everywhere - but it's on the ground where they could really do damage against the Packers' bottom-five rush defence.

David Montgomery has scored in six of his seven games this season, and destroyed Green Bay at Lambeau with 121 yards and three TDs, and now rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has joined the party, finding the end zone in his last four outings - I don't see the Packers keeping up.

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Washington Commanders (4-7) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Match Odds: 5/16.00 | 1/71.14
Points Spread: Cowboys -12.5
Total Over/Under: 48.5

America's Team take centre stage as massive favourites, but they've a stinking 1-11 record against the spread in recent Thanksgiving games, but having watched most of those I've seen enough dodgy Turkey Day games in Big D to exercise caution on them to cover - even though they'll surely win handily.

But Dallas have been experts and blowing away bad teams this season, as the third-best scorers in the league with the joint-best points difference, while Washington bring their awful mix of Sam Howell's turnover problems coupled with him being the most sacked QB in the league.

This Cowboys pass rush should dominate, while cornerback DaRon Bland could break the pix-six record with another here, which he'll fancy, but Howell could arguably throw a few bombs to his decent receivers and make it closer than we think.

The Commanders give away the most points per game in the NFL and rank bottom of the pile in DVOA against the pass so instead of turkey there'll be Lamb on the menu in Dallas - with CeeDee Lamb set for another huge game.

He's had 150+ yards in three of four, scoring scored in three of those, and since the Commanders allow more yards and TDs to receivers than anyone else we're sure to get a large slice of Lamb on Thanksgiving.

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San Francisco 49ers (7-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

Match Odds: 3/101.30 | 13/53.60
Points Spread: Niners -7
Total Over/Under: 43.5

The 49ers beat the Seahawks three times by a combined 89-43 last season, and they look even better now after a three-game skid, while Seattle have big injury worries over Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker.

Throw in Seattle using a rotational offensive line, on a short week, against a pass rush given a shot in the arm by siging Chase Young and even the famed atsmophere at Lumen Field won't help the hosts.

Brock Purdy has been outstanding since the bye with a perfect passer rating last week and it's tough to see this outmatched Seattle side keeping up with Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.

George Kittle could be the man to be on here though, as he's had 354 yards in his last three games and scored in his last two - while his last two trips to Seattle have yielded a stat line of 13 catches, 274 yards and two TDs.

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Thanksgiving Touchdown Treble

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