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How far can Rodgers take the Jets?
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Back 14/1 & 19/1 shots for league MVP
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NFL...Only Bettor out every Wednesday during season
The NFL is back! And as usual the league is packed with storylines, players and teams to watch out for, which we can hopefully use to pluck some value from the plethora of betting markets available for the 2023/24 season.
Aaron Rodgers made the biggest off-season move since Tom Brady, but how far can he take the Jets? And if not him, who are the best bets for taking home MVP and the other NFL awards?
And are there any playoff dark horses who could spring a surprise in winning divisional titles or teams that will outperform their regular season wins totals?
Let's dive in and see...
Best bets for Rodgers' sexy Jets?
We're well used to bandwagons and 'sexy teams' in the offseason, but Green Bay legend Aaron Rodgers moving to the Big Apple has catapulted the New York Jets into the spotlight.
They're on the Hard Knocks TV show and will have a ton of prime time games, but most of all they've tooled up on offensive weapons for Rodgers to work with along with a defence that allowed the fewest TD passes last season and has improved since then.
The 16/117.00 Super Bowl quotes are a bit short considering the teams they'd have to beat just in the AFC East let alone in the playoffs - plus they've got the sixth hardest schedule in the league.
Rodgers is 5/61.84 to eclipse 3,800, which he's done in seven of his last eight full seasons and I expect him to make that comfortably - but his line of 28.5 TD throws may be more of a struggle and I'd probably take the under there at 8/111.73
I don't see them beating the Bills for the AFC East title and Miami could also cause issues - so instead of taking the 4/61.67 on them finding their way into the playoffs somehow, increase that to 5/23.50 on them being a wildcard team with Buffalo untouchable on top.
Will Packers miss the playoffs?
Jordan Love now has the keys to the house in Green Bay and as his arrival signalled the beginning of the end for Rodgers then the team will hope he can deliver on the pre-season hype he's been getting.
The Packers will hope they've somehow done it again after Rodgers replaced Brett Favre in similar fashion, but can lightning really strike three times at Lambeau? The bookies don't think so as they're 4/91.44 to miss the playoffs.
Matt LeFleur's squad looks in decent shape but the trouble is the Vikings are still there, Detroit are well-fancied to improve again and even the Bears should be tough this season so they may have to miss the post season again while they adjust.
Who will challenge Mahomes for MVP?
Patrick Mahomes is 7/18.00 MVP favourite to win for a third time and second in a row - following four-time winner Rodgers who won in 2020 and 2021.
The new Jets man is 19/120.00 and he'll have plenty of primetime airtime to impress, but I just think there are a few more who could outperform him who'll be more likely to make the playoffs.
We know all about the main men - but I would question why Jalen Hurts is as big as 14/115.00 given he may well have won last year but for injury down the stretch.
As good a dual threat as 15/28.50 chance Josh Allen but with more TD scoring power on a team that's not changed much on offence means he must have a great chance even with a harder schedule that last year.
Hurts was always rated below the rest of the big guns with doubts over his passing, but he dispelled them in style last season and with more attention on him a similar display to last year would give him a great chance.
If Trevor Lawrence's career improvement arc continues then he could challenge should he lead the Jags to the playoffs like he did last year, where he led an astonishing comeback from 27-0 down to beat the Chargers and almost took down Mahomes ar Arrowhead.
Those types of display get you noticed so voters will be looking out for him this season, while Chargers QB Justin Herbert could have his best year yet if a talented squad can stay healthy around him.
But one man possibly being overlooked is former winner Lamar Jackson, who I see as a solid option at 19/120.00.
He's got a record new contract after playing last season under a cloud, he's got arguably his best set of receivers in his career and we all know what a sublime runner he is.
Jackson will want to prove Baltimore right for splashing the cash on him, and the way he plays is always eye-catching. If the Ravens can lay down a challenge to the Bengals then he'll remind a lot of people why he won the MVP award just four years ago.
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Don't sleep on the Steelers & Giants
There's a few teams who could upset the applecart this year but Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett quietly ended last season with three straight wins and some impressive displays.
The Steelers have one of the toughest divisions around but I think anyone can beat anyone in the AFC North and I don't see them as the 4/15.00 outsiders of four to win it.
Coach Mike Tomlin is a nailed-on Hall of Famer and Pickett has some great weapons to throw to and in the backfield, so I really like them as 5/42.25 shots just to make the playoffs.
And if you can get a play-off double then the New York Giants would be another team to add - as they're up against the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East but I can see them sneaking through again.
Brian Daboll has instilled a toughness in this squad and Daniel Jones can take another leap forward while Saquon Barkley runs on the franchise tag in a prove-it year.
And since they're playing behind the Eagles then they're another side worth backing in the wildcard markets, with a division win pretty unlikely.
A fabulous five-fold of division champs
I always like an acca on some division winners and here's five I think can get the job done for us at decent prices to make a rather healthy five-fold.
Eagles 5/61.84 - It's a nice price for the Super Bowl runners-up who haven't changed a lot and will be desparate to get back to the big game.
Bills 11/102.11 - The Jets being fancied and Miami dumping them out of the playoffs means Josh Allen's bunch are odds-on. I think they come firing back this season with nobody talking anbout them as challengers in the summer.
49ers 8/151.53 - I like the Seahawks a lot and wouldn't be too shocked if they spring the upset, but San Fran are still in the Super Bowl window and look to finall have settled their QB mess.
Jaguars 4/71.57 - Another team I'm high on for the season due to Trevor Lawrence working with a QB whisperer like Doug Pederson and having talent around him.
Saints 6/52.20 - Not sure anyone's playing with a bigger chip on their shoulder than Derek Carr this season so expect fireworks in New Orleans.
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