Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Monday November 11

Monday afternoon's all-weather meeting at Kempton resulted in greater than usual variance in pace across the eight races, as illustrated by the finishing speed %s in the headline figures below. The lower the finishing speed %, the slower the finish compared to the average race speed, and, by implication, the faster the pace before that. 

Races four and five were run close to par for the distances in question, while races seven and eight were notably slowly-run, resulting in sprint finishes. The closing sectionals of the latter two races were good enough to raise the sectional ratings of the winners close to what might be expected of horses of that calibre. That said, just a word of caution with those contests: camerawork was such that the sectionals had to be estimated, so the possibility of a small degree of error must be acknowledged. 

Fab Lolly looks easily best in her race, having come from last to first, though it should be noted again that slowly-run races test the ability to settle and quicken and not just a horse's position compared to the overall pace. Certavi also got a sizeable mark-up, but then so did many of his rivals, and his superiority to those rivals is less clear-cut. 

A more rewarding race for analysis, from both a sectional and an overall time point of view, looks to be the 6f nursery won by Souville. This race is probably a fair bit stronger than might appear otherwise. Souville and Pensax Lad came comfortably clear of the remainder and yet were finishing quite fast (in the 34.75s region for the last 3f). Both remain of interest, but Pensax Lad may be a better bet next time without a last-time win next to his name. 

The two divisions of the mile maiden for two-year-olds which opened the card are also worthy of closer investigation. Elite Army recorded the better winning time, but the difference with Warrior of Light is small once sectionals are factored in. Sectionals also suggest that Warrior of Light might not have been the best colt in his race: runner-up Rapid Advance came home in around 0.4s quicker and gets a marginally superior sectional rating of 83 as a result. 

Another horse that can be rated the "moral" winner is Diplomatic, who came home fastest of all in the mile handicap (about 34.55s for last 3f) but could not catch Sugarformyhoney. The overall time was poor, even allowing for the sectionals, and the surprise winner should be vulnerable in a race in which she is not so advantageously positioned. 

To Follow: Pensax Lad, Rapid Advance
To Oppose: Sugarformyhoney      

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