Sectional Debrief: Kempton, Monday December 2

Monday afternoon all-weather action is more likely to be soporific than stimulating, but sometimes a performance comes along which forces you to sit up and take notice. That was the case this week. 

That performance was put up by Western Hymn in victory in division two of the one-mile maiden. It was not that he beat notably good rivals - Timeform has the next six home rated between 71 and 83 - and certainly not that he ran a fast overall time (it was the slowest of the three races at the distance on the afternoon). But Western Hymn's closing sectional - engineered from the information available - was extraordinarily quick and suggests that he could even be a Group horse in the making. 

Only four horses have been recorded running faster last-3f sectionals at Kempton since this Sectional Debrief began back in April (future French 1000 Guineas fourth Zurigha remains fastest) and not one of them was, like Western Hymn, a two-year-old.

It can be seen, also, that not one of the other top two-year-olds on sectional times ran at as far as a mile; the majority were sprinters, and the surface was quicker than on Monday in some instances, too. 

As regular followers of this Sectional Debrief will know, there needs to be a trade off between overall time and closing sectional. In this instance, the overall time is modest at best, but the upgrade for Western Hymn running the race as he did is large. 

A 96 sectional rating is just a starting point - if a very good one for a horse making its debut - but one Western Hymn should improve substantially on:  he was notably green, twice met trouble and did most of his running in the last 300 yards, never mind the last 3f. Sectionals point to him being several lengths better than a two-and-three-quarter-length winner. 
Western Hymn's trainer, John Gosden, supplied the winner of the other division in Cloudscape, and this is a promising colt as well, if not so promising as Western Hymn. Cloudscape quickened well (35.2s final 3f) to come from behind and can be rated value double his three-length margin of victory. 

There was not a lot to get excited about otherwise. Drive On did well to come from last to first to win the 7f nursery with a closing split of about 34.95s, but the principals in all the other races ran close to par (the sectional adjustment includes a small uplift to the timefigures). It is, however, worth giving a second look to Nassau Storm, who came fifth in Tasrih's handicap but ran comfortably the fastest last 3f (34.75s) and emerges marginally best in the race on sectionals. 

Sectional Debrief running totals since launch: 115 bets, 44 successful (38.3% strike rate), +49.35 profit (risking 1 pt, back or lay) at Betfair SP before commission, for +42.9% return on investment

To follow: Western Hymn, Nassau Storm 

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