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Rose can finally bloom at Southwell
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Southwell, 15.55 - Back Hale End each-way @ 8/19.00
I was with Hale End when he contested a pretty similar handicap over course and distance at the end of January and the Co Durham raider ran with credit without troubling the judge.
The six-year-old has the opportunity to improve on that fourth-placed finish here and perhaps it was interesting to note that, although beaten, Hale End produced the second best finishing speed percentage in the race according to RaceiQ.
Therefore, his defeat could arguably be attributed to a sluggish start - he was sixth best in the race to 20mph unlike the race he won when he was rated third on that metric, allowing him to travel closer to the pace in midfield rather than trying to make ground from the rear.
At this level, small margins are enormous with many horses handicapped to the ceiling of their ability, so the 'one percenters' like a swift exit from the stalls can be win or lose a contender a race.
That handicap where Hale End was fourth has already produced two winners, King Of York and Packetofbiscuits, which is encouraging for his chance here.
Back Hale End EW in 15.55 Southwell
Southwell, 16.25 - Back American Rose @ 3/14.00
A strong gallop is a requisite for the chances of American Rose given that she is often slowly away in her races before charging home late.
That was certainly the case on the mare's latest effort where she virtually gave away all chance leaving the gates before producing both the fastest furlong of the race and the highest finishing speed percentage in rescuing a podium finish from an uncompromising position.
She also clocked the best top speed (40.71mph) in the race just to underline that the ability is definitely there, but her trait of handing her rivals lengths out of the stalls is handcapping her chance of moving up the grades.
I counted at least four of her rivals in this 0-50 event that like to race aggressively with Marcello Si often free in front, so hopes are high that American Rose might have a collapsing pace to run at late in her bid to score for the first time in 549 days!
Back American Rose in 16.25 Southwell