A facile five-length defeat of a Shadwell debutant at long odds-on may not scream strong form, but there are reasons for believing that Billiecart's novice win last month was a better performance than it looked at first glance.
A strong early pace, set by rank outsider Shimmering Spirit, contributed to an unusually strong speed figure given the apparent uncompetitiveness of a four-runner contest featuring a 1/6 favourite.
As you would hope from a colt entered in both the English and Irish 2000 Guineas, Billiecart stretched readily clear in the closing stages to put good distances between himself and his toiling rivals.
That victory, not matter how straightforward, did give the selection a valuable experience of the straight at Newcastle as well as confirming the promise he displayed in a strong July Course maiden at Newmarket in the summer was not misplaced.
The winner Distant Storm and runner-up Constitution River are now rated 115 and 112 respectively following further successes as juveniles which have seen the former installed as a 12/1 shot for the Guineas, while Ballydoyle's Wootton Bassett colt, beaten just a short-head that day, is 20/1 for the Derby.
Billiecart clearly excelled trying to keep tabs on a pair of exceptional juveniles and he looks worth supporting to continue his education in style in this Listed affair.
Back Billiecart to Win 13:15 Newcastle
The handicapper must have a few sleepless nights over his appraisal of Al Najashi given Oli Sangster's colt began his handicap career off just 53 at Southwell in January.
Now rated 85 following a rapid four-timer recorded at four different tracks over six and seven furlongs, the son of Territories bids to complete a stunning fifth successive victory in this fiercely competitive Class 2 handicap.
There have been a number of horses which have racked up sizeable winning sequences this winter and soared in the handicap as a result with Yorkshire Glory (rating of 46 to 73) and Aisling Oscar (46 to 78) proving two of the headline acts, while Al Najashi is another to have left a basement rating iwell behind in swift time.
The application of the tongue tie seems to have worked the oracle for the selection who proved his suitability for the track with a facile triumph here over seven furlongs in February and the speed figure of his Wolverhampton romp six days before entitles him to take high rank here.
Back Al Najashi to Win 13:50 Newcastle
A long memory can sometimes be a valuable asset in this game and, having backed and tipped Tribal Star at a sizeable price in the 2025 running of this event, the scars haven't yet quite fully healed.
It certainly wasn't the worst bad beat of my punting career as the selection was readily put in his place late on by impressive winner Wonder Legend who, rather notably, was thought good enough to contest the Gold Cup at Ascot on his next start.
Aside from bumping into a horse in a handicap which was then sent off at just 25/126.00 for Group 1 glory, Tribal Star also met his fair share of issues during the race as he was parked four deep for the first mile before rider Jamie Powell finally found some cover.
Still travelling smoothly turning for home, Powell wisely chartered a course to the stands' side rail aboard the Ado McGuinness-trained gelding, only to find Humble Spark trying to burrow up his inner two furlongs from home.
The inevitable collision ensued and, while Humble Spark came off worse, Tribal Star took a good few strides to regain his equilibrium before finishing strongly into second.
The five-year-old has undergone the same preparation for this year's renewal, taking in a Dundalk event on route to the north east and it was interesting to note the RaceiQ data from that creditable fourth to Easter Classic contender Gaucher.
To his credit over a trip well short of his best, Tribal Star clocked a faster finishing speed percentage than the winner and was only marginally slower from the three-furlong marker, figures which suggest he is just as good as twelve months ago, if not better.
This event has the potential to be another strong renewal with Cesarewitch winner Beylerbeyi a worthy favourite having excelled in his three qualifying runs, all over an inadequate trip.
However, the Sportsbook is offering four places and Tribal Star looks more than capable of filling one of those to provide his backers with a profit from the place part of the bet, while he also retains a live chance of going one better for a stable which struck at Dundalk this week.
Back Tribal Star E/W, 4 Places, in 16:42 Newcastle
Back Billiecart to Win 13:15 Newcastle @ 3/14.00
Back Al Najashi to Win 13:50 Newcastle @ 7/24.50
Back Tribal Star, E/W 4 Places, in 16:42 Newcastle @ 11/112.00